{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bd0843fb-ebbe-4281-b146-077d0ac173c4", "symbol": "SS1EUA", "name": "UBS Core BBG EUR Gov 1-10 UCITS ETF EUR dis", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 73.623, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -23.705, "architecture_energy": 24.017, "architecture_maturity": 16.722, "architecture_confidence": 60.265, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.0, "rotation_up": 10.26, "upward_expansion": 18.52, "deceleration": 63.75, "rotation_down": 58.87, "downward_expansion": 60.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.739067, 11.760545, 11.75841, 11.755087 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.77, "trend_reference": 11.761947, "distance_from_trend": 0.000685, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.443078, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.028569, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.322669, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.003674, "excess_performance": -0.174566, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000685, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000612, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.028569, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005766, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.143227, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022008, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.003674, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.360206, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 126787, "relative_activity": 0.444339, "balance": 1.360206, "dry_up": 0.916448, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005359, "annualized_volatility": 0.034866, "from_high_reference": -0.014898, "from_low_reference": 0.017462 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.761947, "fair_value_reference": 11.443078, "structural_low": 11.568, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.000797, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": -0.01548, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.016535, "worst_return": -0.027849, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.000525, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.043062, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.028185, "worst_return": -0.059136, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.005427, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.066093, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.03443, 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"New", "return": -0.009834, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0142, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.000839, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.004394, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006242, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": 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"activity_lines": [ 11.782667, 11.783164, 11.759933, 11.760915 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.712, "volume": 121777, "typical_volume": 268748.45, "trend": 11.762689, "fair_value": 11.430816, "relative_strength": -12.446416, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.239115, "energy": 16.006533, "activity_lines": [ 11.7548, 11.772145, 11.757219, 11.7576 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.716, "volume": 416777, "typical_volume": 286028.4, "trend": 11.762274, "fair_value": 11.436737, "relative_strength": -12.596828, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.310317, "energy": 28.946247, "activity_lines": [ 11.733333, 11.7612, 11.755267, 11.754588 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.77, "volume": 126787, "typical_volume": 285338.45, "trend": 11.761947, "fair_value": 11.443078, "relative_strength": -14.322669, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.704957, "energy": 24.016783, "activity_lines": [ 11.739067, 11.760545, 11.75841, 11.755087 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }