{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bd0867d1-16ff-450c-b626-c742ad7ab1e0", "symbol": "PPTA", "name": "Perpetua Resources Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.543, "architecture_energy": 45.151, "architecture_maturity": 31.218, "architecture_confidence": 92.641, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.74, "rotation_up": 25.21, "upward_expansion": 8.65, "deceleration": 52.13, "rotation_down": 53.52, "downward_expansion": 79.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.266667, 20.479091, 22.817143, 24.564667 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 24.72, "trend_reference": 26.739, "distance_from_trend": -0.075508, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.659647, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.80971, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.136098, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.120285, "excess_performance": -0.307738, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.075508, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051102, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.80971, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.66185, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.141361, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.232671, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.120285, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.954825, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8106580, "relative_activity": 1.100068, "balance": 0.954825, "dry_up": 0.857104, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.150096, "annualized_volatility": 0.839793, "from_high_reference": -0.338507, "from_low_reference": 0.518428 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.739, "fair_value_reference": 13.659647, "structural_low": 16.435, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.032091, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.075374, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.792553, "worst_return": -0.224335, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.134058, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.054558, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.235294, "worst_return": -0.174905, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.212928, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.259635, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.784281, "worst_return": 0.083333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.585324, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027545, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.264108, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.305023, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.48725, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"close": 16.9, "volume": 5651622, "typical_volume": 7654866.85, "trend": 27.378333, "fair_value": 13.336699, "relative_strength": -38.921662, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.512337, "energy": 83.461971, "activity_lines": [ 19.55, 21.472182, 24.303429, 25.882172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.84, "volume": 5586367, "typical_volume": 7543100.8, "trend": 27.108667, "fair_value": 13.427276, "relative_strength": -34.394321, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.638852, "energy": 82.316564, "activity_lines": [ 18.608, 20.522545, 23.507952, 25.266796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.41, "volume": 5919980, "typical_volume": 7477328.65, "trend": 26.904333, "fair_value": 13.52266, "relative_strength": -32.644963, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.956572, "energy": 78.342523, "activity_lines": [ 18.288, 19.864364, 22.835048, 24.705591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.72, "volume": 8106580, "typical_volume": 7369164.75, "trend": 26.739, "fair_value": 13.659647, "relative_strength": -14.136098, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.542813, "energy": 45.151385, "activity_lines": [ 20.266667, 20.479091, 22.817143, 24.564667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }