{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bd0e4ac0-5171-421a-b6e7-d59461e303fe", "symbol": "DNA", "name": "Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 66.078, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 28.28, "architecture_energy": 48.905, "architecture_maturity": 34.565, "architecture_confidence": 73.396, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.69, "rotation_up": 71.3, "upward_expansion": 44.85, "deceleration": 41.63, "rotation_down": 14.0, "downward_expansion": 26.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 170.0, 166.363636, 163.484001, 165.694389 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 170.0, "trend_reference": 168.807003, "distance_from_trend": 0.007067, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 486.942372, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.650883, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.215626, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.034804, "excess_performance": 0.019863, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007067, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.200499, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.650883, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044916, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.222156, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102294, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.034804, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020873, "annualized_volatility": 0.28777, "from_high_reference": -0.411765, "from_low_reference": 0.133333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 168.807003, "fair_value_reference": 486.942372, "structural_low": 150.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.042539, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.003831, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.193361, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.299826, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.003831, "worst_return": -0.390554, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.286461, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.419184, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.091954, "worst_return": -0.480969, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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161.610192, 169.148261 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 170.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5.35, "trend": 184.67367, "fair_value": 523.360321, "relative_strength": -24.542864, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.478308, "energy": 29.351945, "activity_lines": [ 162.0, 157.384182, 161.926573, 167.945658 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 170.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5.35, "trend": 180.707003, "fair_value": 513.973141, "relative_strength": -23.982884, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.768131, "energy": 40.202012, "activity_lines": [ 166.0, 159.818182, 162.272144, 166.99897 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 170.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5.35, "trend": 176.740336, "fair_value": 504.962885, "relative_strength": -23.001227, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 4.349261, "energy": 42.086915, "activity_lines": [ 168.666667, 162.363636, 162.646906, 166.308196 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 170.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5.35, "trend": 172.77367, "fair_value": 495.952629, "relative_strength": -22.913673, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 9.730189, "energy": 44.997439, "activity_lines": [ 170.0, 164.545455, 163.050858, 165.873335 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 170.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5.35, "trend": 168.807003, "fair_value": 486.942372, "relative_strength": -22.215626, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.280162, "energy": 48.904761, "activity_lines": [ 170.0, 166.363636, 163.484001, 165.694389 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }