{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bd1424f6-7c6f-4874-8c4e-9eec7f7e8a4d", "symbol": "SPJE", "name": "iShares Core MSCI Japan IMI UCI", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 56.711, "architecture_energy": 34.006, "architecture_maturity": 60.369, "architecture_confidence": 71.985, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.95, "rotation_up": 40.54, "upward_expansion": 68.71, "deceleration": 82.65, "rotation_down": 27.23, "downward_expansion": 16.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.934933, 14.975927, 14.762505, 14.487544 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.202, "trend_reference": 14.147067, "distance_from_trend": 0.074569, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.640237, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.305987, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.52248, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.106566, "excess_performance": -0.064326, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074569, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065425, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.305987, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025048, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.005225, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05451, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.106566, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.585949, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 111539, "relative_activity": 2.948431, "balance": 3.585949, "dry_up": 2.223245, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029834, "annualized_volatility": 0.191854, "from_high_reference": -0.013882, "from_low_reference": 0.391615 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.147067, "fair_value_reference": 11.640237, "structural_low": 12.698, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.02626, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-01", "close": 9.317, "volume": 7391, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-08", "close": 9.594, "volume": 46661, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, 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"direction": 73.353518, "energy": 85.503102, "activity_lines": [ 15.158, 14.963455, 14.528667, 14.254576 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.648, "volume": 82288, "typical_volume": 31885.0, "trend": 13.924267, "fair_value": 11.530178, "relative_strength": -0.261262, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.988174, "energy": 54.67819, "activity_lines": [ 15.008533, 14.938764, 14.572867, 14.305905 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.008, "volume": 95715, "typical_volume": 33055.15, "trend": 14.008067, "fair_value": 11.568396, "relative_strength": 2.150981, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.855855, "energy": 50.272581, "activity_lines": [ 14.983067, 14.972145, 14.649848, 14.375824 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.616, "volume": 46879, "typical_volume": 34297.7, "trend": 14.078267, "fair_value": 11.601522, "relative_strength": -1.358824, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.923804, "energy": 32.428128, "activity_lines": [ 14.8484, 14.922218, 14.681638, 14.415045 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.202, "volume": 111539, "typical_volume": 37829.95, "trend": 14.147067, "fair_value": 11.640237, "relative_strength": -0.52248, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.711261, "energy": 34.006428, "activity_lines": [ 14.934933, 14.975927, 14.762505, 14.487544 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }