{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bd15a65d-b491-4c3b-8322-6fa2d8fda18a", "symbol": "000417", "name": "Hefei Department Store Group Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.348, "architecture_energy": 63.651, "architecture_maturity": 17.277, "architecture_confidence": 78.637, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.78, "rotation_up": 11.16, "upward_expansion": 14.95, "deceleration": 35.54, "rotation_down": 71.73, "downward_expansion": 85.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.074667, 6.686854, 7.058149, 7.144657 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.96, "trend_reference": 7.366748, "distance_from_trend": -0.190959, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.712277, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.043367, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.877878, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.260546, "excess_performance": -0.267946, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.190959, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018072, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.043367, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.235563, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.188779, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047864, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.260546, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.00557, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 185879741, "relative_activity": 0.975088, "balance": 1.00557, "dry_up": 1.336502, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.210429, "annualized_volatility": 0.865565, "from_high_reference": -0.447637, "from_low_reference": 0.170923 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.366748, "fair_value_reference": 5.712277, "structural_low": 5.09, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.03146, "positive_rate": 0.722222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.034617, "regime_survival": 0.611111, "best_return": 0.213675, "worst_return": -0.053691, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.087059, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.134177, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.48456, "worst_return": -0.009546, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.081197, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.119695, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.324582, "worst_return": -0.010359, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.087434, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034258, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.152997, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.082418, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.090788, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", 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"relative_strength": -10.678314, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.971829, "energy": 35.645608, "activity_lines": [ 6.856984, 7.257488, 7.311791, 7.356023 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.72, "volume": 291365450, "typical_volume": 184974812.6, "trend": 7.438081, "fair_value": 5.708038, "relative_strength": -18.226519, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.573949, "energy": 57.033286, "activity_lines": [ 6.348291, 6.909261, 7.169732, 7.240017 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.96, "volume": 185879741, "typical_volume": 190628721.2, "trend": 7.366748, "fair_value": 5.712277, "relative_strength": -18.877878, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.348416, "energy": 63.650601, "activity_lines": [ 6.074667, 6.686854, 7.058149, 7.144657 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }