{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bd19d2a9-27eb-4aab-9b05-1620101e9990", "symbol": "BRAP4", "name": "Bradespar S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.313, "architecture_energy": 55.837, "architecture_maturity": 9.408, "architecture_confidence": 80.185, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.21, "rotation_up": 14.83, "upward_expansion": 11.05, "deceleration": 40.53, "rotation_down": 61.65, "downward_expansion": 84.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.575334, 21.792364, 22.291429, 22.561462 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 21.35, "trend_reference": 22.898, "distance_from_trend": -0.067604, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.979771, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.257379, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.536363, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.118861, "excess_performance": -0.061813, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.067604, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047007, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.257379, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.141253, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.025364, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062824, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.118861, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.710548, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9821100, "relative_activity": 1.303228, "balance": 0.710548, "dry_up": 1.091872, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049252, "annualized_volatility": 0.266267, "from_high_reference": -0.166992, "from_low_reference": 0.531829 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.898, "fair_value_reference": 16.979771, "structural_low": 20.610001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.011697, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": -0.000438, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.207848, "worst_return": -0.125227, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.091545, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.004896, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.211285, "worst_return": -0.062885, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.127968, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.001311, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.532454, "worst_return": 0.022036, "sufficient": true 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.064622, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056374, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02521, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.469366, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.193352, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.032568, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035699, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.04321, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019349, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029545, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 14.895136, "volume": 17952500, "typical_volume": 15920370.0, "trend": 16.963394, "fair_value": 14.884645, "relative_strength": -16.196048, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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{ "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.6, "volume": 8167000, "typical_volume": 8063045.0, "trend": 22.823, "fair_value": 16.907905, "relative_strength": 3.437785, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.404562, "energy": 58.55698, "activity_lines": [ 21.662, 21.981273, 22.490762, 22.71372 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.0, "volume": 6127800, "typical_volume": 7660490.0, "trend": 22.887, "fair_value": 16.944712, "relative_strength": 2.712363, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.931686, "energy": 55.927472, "activity_lines": [ 21.72, 21.935273, 22.42181, 22.660624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.35, "volume": 9821100, "typical_volume": 7535980.0, "trend": 22.898, "fair_value": 16.979771, "relative_strength": 2.536363, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.313176, "energy": 55.836889, "activity_lines": [ 21.575334, 21.792364, 22.291429, 22.561462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }