{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bd1a2c36-9d5e-4b9a-b575-7166cd8084de", "symbol": "DOV", "name": "Dover Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 72.148, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.566, "architecture_energy": 47.128, "architecture_maturity": 21.209, "architecture_confidence": 78.166, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.49, "rotation_up": 10.16, "upward_expansion": 8.44, "deceleration": 40.97, "rotation_down": 65.96, "downward_expansion": 84.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 208.294667, 211.898909, 213.860722, 214.215734 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 211.13, "trend_reference": 214.369706, "distance_from_trend": -0.015113, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 179.973692, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.173116, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.767631, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.051518, "excess_performance": -0.177143, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.015113, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038262, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.173116, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088768, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.057676, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076626, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.051518, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.646392, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4990994, "relative_activity": 0.992918, "balance": 1.646392, "dry_up": 1.234323, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05345, "annualized_volatility": 0.224189, "from_high_reference": -0.10694, "from_low_reference": 0.338195 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 214.369706, "fair_value_reference": 179.973692, "structural_low": 193.7476, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.004889, "positive_rate": 0.368421, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": -0.015896, "regime_survival": 0.578947, "best_return": 0.082293, "worst_return": -0.105057, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.0024, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.043912, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.154346, "worst_return": -0.182175, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.075183, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.034373, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.184957, "worst_return": 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"mixed", "direction": -28.884516, "energy": 23.725672, "activity_lines": [ 211.139333, 214.32627, 215.083213, 214.988821 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 204.62, "volume": 6677225, "typical_volume": 5107930.1, "trend": 214.029745, "fair_value": 179.506018, "relative_strength": -5.462918, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.712466, "energy": 38.326072, "activity_lines": [ 207.920667, 212.477455, 214.164802, 214.402815 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 211.13, "volume": 4990994, "typical_volume": 5026593.9, "trend": 214.369706, "fair_value": 179.973692, "relative_strength": -5.767631, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.566329, "energy": 47.1279, "activity_lines": [ 208.294667, 211.898909, 213.860722, 214.215734 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }