{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bd1e60f9-336c-4faa-abf8-e45a935966b5", "symbol": "REACH", "name": "Reach Subsea ASA", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.918, "architecture_energy": 55.573, "architecture_maturity": 83.239, "architecture_confidence": 69.656, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.69, "rotation_up": 27.77, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 66.82, "rotation_down": 46.57, "downward_expansion": 72.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.127333, 5.084727, 5.448619, 5.779247 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.37, "trend_reference": 6.175, "distance_from_trend": -0.130364, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.371793, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.157223, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.723679, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.251046, "excess_performance": -0.37604, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.130364, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068253, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.157223, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.18725, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.267237, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050665, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.251046, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.508607, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1082699, "relative_activity": 1.149251, "balance": 0.508607, "dry_up": 0.885293, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05429, "annualized_volatility": 0.265203, "from_high_reference": -0.358423, "from_low_reference": 0.144989 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.175, "fair_value_reference": 6.371793, "structural_low": 4.69, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.062941, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.022691, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.149222, "worst_return": -0.200483, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.090909, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.029326, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.209549, "worst_return": -0.064987, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.144257, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.053799, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.232727, "worst_return": -0.092086, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.050398, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03044, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.097651, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.167734, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.159196, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", 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"relative_strength": -34.324572, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.017228, "energy": 86.626246, "activity_lines": [ 4.939333, 5.143273, 5.691381, 5.994602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.97, "volume": 641782, "typical_volume": 944375.2, "trend": 6.275333, "fair_value": 6.350412, "relative_strength": -33.186745, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.537933, "energy": 66.435438, "activity_lines": [ 4.936, 5.066364, 5.584476, 5.907398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.14, "volume": 815471, "typical_volume": 914181.1, "trend": 6.221, "fair_value": 6.360423, "relative_strength": -30.437072, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.214865, "energy": 63.727399, "activity_lines": [ 4.998, 5.044727, 5.502, 5.834151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.37, "volume": 1082699, "typical_volume": 942091.05, "trend": 6.175, "fair_value": 6.371793, "relative_strength": -26.723679, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.918434, "energy": 55.573012, "activity_lines": [ 5.127333, 5.084727, 5.448619, 5.779247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }