{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bd1ed513-0dad-40db-9a35-b5fbf188c1f7", "symbol": "THL", "name": "Tourism Holdings Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.932, "architecture_energy": 53.563, "architecture_maturity": 39.18, "architecture_confidence": 86.849, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.33, "rotation_up": 54.65, "upward_expansion": 82.42, "deceleration": 65.07, "rotation_down": 24.18, "downward_expansion": 9.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.896667, 2.867455, 2.670524, 2.567157 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.91, "trend_reference": 2.485796, "distance_from_trend": 0.170651, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.368286, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.228737, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 13.443756, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.204484, "excess_performance": 0.176211, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.170651, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041373, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.228737, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.35873, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.134438, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.203961, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.204484, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.956845, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 252536, "relative_activity": 0.388584, "balance": 5.956845, "dry_up": 1.689767, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067936, "annualized_volatility": 0.46093, "from_high_reference": -0.02349, "from_low_reference": 0.480916 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.485796, "fair_value_reference": 2.368286, "structural_low": 1.965, "invalidation": "A 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2.95, "volume": 516478, "typical_volume": 583578.7, "trend": 2.434426, "fair_value": 2.372124, "relative_strength": 17.835741, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.383915, "energy": 87.84093, "activity_lines": [ 2.864, 2.705091, 2.496841, 2.454793 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.86, "volume": 378598, "typical_volume": 578509.6, "trend": 2.448569, "fair_value": 2.370859, "relative_strength": 14.351609, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.203909, "energy": 83.732688, "activity_lines": [ 2.885333, 2.760727, 2.539733, 2.482249 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.93, "volume": 3354657, "typical_volume": 736875.05, "trend": 2.462417, "fair_value": 2.370042, "relative_strength": 15.858075, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.91568, "energy": 82.196607, "activity_lines": [ 2.913333, 2.815273, 2.588446, 2.513309 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.86, "volume": 406842, "typical_volume": 709844.95, "trend": 2.472944, "fair_value": 2.368721, "relative_strength": 13.072596, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.002035, "energy": 62.022791, "activity_lines": [ 2.896, 2.842909, 2.628466, 2.53896 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.91, "volume": 252536, "typical_volume": 649887.3, "trend": 2.485796, "fair_value": 2.368286, "relative_strength": 13.443756, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.932439, "energy": 53.562566, "activity_lines": [ 2.896667, 2.867455, 2.670524, 2.567157 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }