{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bd1f2e80-d7b2-4154-9e21-3c958a3f5103", "symbol": "MESO", "name": "Mesoblast Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.953, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 16.131, "architecture_energy": 16.88, "architecture_maturity": 16.69, "architecture_confidence": 46.871, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.47, "rotation_up": 51.99, "upward_expansion": 34.03, "deceleration": 38.05, "rotation_down": 19.5, "downward_expansion": 20.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.492667, 15.143091, 15.017048, 15.101871 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 15.94, "trend_reference": 15.446667, "distance_from_trend": 0.031938, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.779968, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.478669, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.517583, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.000627, "excess_performance": -0.188081, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031938, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057018, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.478669, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025144, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.135176, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067476, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.000627, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.600854, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 715900, "relative_activity": 0.663375, "balance": 1.600854, "dry_up": 1.228623, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106399, "annualized_volatility": 0.470925, "from_high_reference": -0.258605, "from_low_reference": 0.259084 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.446667, "fair_value_reference": 10.779968, "structural_low": 13.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.070075, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.020855, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.412037, "worst_return": -0.207084, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.081967, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.138171, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 2.24537, "worst_return": -0.511905, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.011061, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.22882, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 2.171296, "worst_return": -0.616071, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.571429, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.449413, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 5.453704, "worst_return": -0.626752, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.752026, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.701389, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.215293, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.081854, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023963, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.088988, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.068726, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.175667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.114476, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.087774, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.042539, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.079677, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.52, "volume": 2315422, "typical_volume": 1581018.0, "trend": 6.767, "fair_value": 11.978141, "relative_strength": -66.591004, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.036261, "energy": 21.756524, "activity_lines": [ 14.464, 14.457818, 14.733571, 15.131957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.32, "volume": 2451799, "typical_volume": 1174824.1, "trend": 15.886667, "fair_value": 10.577147, "relative_strength": -3.57587, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.506027, "energy": 8.633716, "activity_lines": [ 15.483333, 14.959818, 14.963667, 15.219785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.31, "volume": 1010779, "typical_volume": 1086373.6, "trend": 15.747, "fair_value": 10.624006, "relative_strength": -12.954493, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.533405, "energy": 17.699031, "activity_lines": [ 15.606667, 15.049455, 14.995333, 15.182581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.17, "volume": 1125137, "typical_volume": 1095173.7, "trend": 15.614, "fair_value": 10.693814, "relative_strength": -19.460958, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.134855, "energy": 19.396416, "activity_lines": [ 15.287333, 14.926, 14.921, 15.080839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.94, "volume": 715900, "typical_volume": 1079179.0, "trend": 15.446667, "fair_value": 10.779968, "relative_strength": -13.517583, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.131036, "energy": 16.880462, "activity_lines": [ 15.492667, 15.143091, 15.017048, 15.101871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }