{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "bd22d87a-3d2a-44fe-b549-56343106f437",
    "symbol": "CSC",
    "name": "Chesterfield Special Cylinders Holdings Plc",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -66.356,
    "architecture_energy": 79.101,
    "architecture_maturity": 34.846,
    "architecture_confidence": 96,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 7.68,
        "rotation_up": 24.38,
        "upward_expansion": 19.6,
        "deceleration": 38.72,
        "rotation_down": 61.42,
        "downward_expansion": 95.26
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        0.343667,
        0.351364,
        0.38619,
        0.413022
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 0.345,
    "trend_reference": 0.4425,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.220339,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 0.358571,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.037846,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -20.341127,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.342857,
    "excess_performance": -0.394092,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.220339,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.004873,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.037846,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.349897,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.203411,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.346781,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.342857,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.093399,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 138555,
      "relative_activity": 0.794073,
      "balance": 0.093399,
      "dry_up": 1.252161,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.084571,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.298603,
      "from_high_reference": -0.372727,
      "from_low_reference": 0.227758
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 0.4425,
      "fair_value_reference": 0.358571,
      "structural_low": 0.33,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 25,
        "median_return": 0.0,
        "positive_rate": 0.48,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.48,
        "median_excess_return": -0.017883,
        "regime_survival": 0.8,
        "best_return": 0.313433,
        "worst_return": -0.541353,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": 0.109375,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.056085,
        "regime_survival": 0.444444,
        "best_return": 0.301587,
        "worst_return": -0.568493,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.076447,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.134124,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": -0.03125,
        "worst_return": -0.385185,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.120161,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.17619,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
        "best_return": 0.084746,
        "worst_return": -0.533333,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2024-11-22",
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        "return": 0.044118,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-01-24",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-02-28",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "end": "2025-03-28",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2025-06-06",
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        "return": 0.079365,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "active": false
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      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 174012.75,
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        "fair_value": 0.358218,
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "stage": 3,
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "gate": "mixed",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 166139.55,
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        "fair_value": 0.358795,
        "relative_strength": -18.422428,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 160857.1,
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        "fair_value": 0.358891,
        "relative_strength": -16.779215,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -73.451958,
        "energy": 84.592451,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 0.35,
        "volume": 17926,
        "typical_volume": 158814.35,
        "trend": 0.449333,
        "fair_value": 0.358955,
        "relative_strength": -17.354362,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -70.270297,
        "energy": 85.303365,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.353,
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          0.411976,
          0.433409
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 0.34,
        "volume": 124883,
        "typical_volume": 154782.45,
        "trend": 0.447,
        "fair_value": 0.358795,
        "relative_strength": -20.558532,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -72.653558,
        "energy": 83.631735,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.347,
          0.364091,
          0.402429,
          0.426355
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 0.34,
        "volume": 592576,
        "typical_volume": 170635.55,
        "trend": 0.444667,
        "fair_value": 0.358699,
        "relative_strength": -21.349889,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -71.216653,
        "energy": 83.617247,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.344,
          0.356364,
          0.39369,
          0.419452
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 0.345,
        "volume": 138555,
        "typical_volume": 174486.4,
        "trend": 0.4425,
        "fair_value": 0.358571,
        "relative_strength": -20.341127,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -66.355681,
        "energy": 79.101488,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.343667,
          0.351364,
          0.38619,
          0.413022
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}