{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bd2d9eec-a4e0-4861-be21-e836ad1bde4e", "symbol": "DWNI", "name": "Deutsche Wohnen SE", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.249, "architecture_energy": 39.539, "architecture_maturity": 48.289, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.41, "rotation_up": 21.74, "upward_expansion": 5.11, "deceleration": 50.1, "rotation_down": 48.87, "downward_expansion": 76.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.4, 18.501455, 18.784165, 19.200503 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 18.42, "trend_reference": 19.841912, "distance_from_trend": -0.071662, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.137233, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.128552, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.238775, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.139499, "excess_performance": -0.204139, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.071662, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03961, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.128552, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062299, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.172388, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082383, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.139499, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.261678, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 258113, "relative_activity": 0.714245, "balance": 0.261678, "dry_up": 0.679161, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046383, "annualized_volatility": 0.277259, "from_high_reference": -0.229322, "from_low_reference": 0.026756 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.841912, "fair_value_reference": 21.137233, "structural_low": 17.940001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.011186, "positive_rate": 0.482759, "directional_follow_through": 0.517241, "median_excess_return": -0.012446, "regime_survival": 0.827586, "best_return": 0.141629, "worst_return": -0.174978, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.00684, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.003966, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.299324, "worst_return": -0.282351, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.055205, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.08859, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.28555, "worst_return": -0.376004, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"fair_value": 21.230481, "relative_strength": -13.853713, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.472434, "energy": 35.873689, "activity_lines": [ 18.752001, 18.744357, 19.144567, 19.630553 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.440001, "volume": 253204, "typical_volume": 578778.0, "trend": 20.075672, "fair_value": 21.205069, "relative_strength": -13.512691, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.826366, "energy": 31.588547, "activity_lines": [ 18.704001, 18.662186, 19.032554, 19.520686 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.16, "volume": 249913, "typical_volume": 445667.8, "trend": 20.005722, "fair_value": 21.181047, "relative_strength": -15.353318, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.038201, "energy": 39.917677, "activity_lines": [ 18.538667, 18.556001, 18.91893, 19.397095 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.48, "volume": 220508, "typical_volume": 418052.2, "trend": 19.94145, "fair_value": 21.157166, "relative_strength": -15.215279, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.397141, "energy": 39.540435, "activity_lines": [ 18.469334, 18.53091, 18.850051, 19.298661 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.42, "volume": 258113, "typical_volume": 361379.05, "trend": 19.841912, "fair_value": 21.137233, "relative_strength": -17.238775, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.248571, "energy": 39.53928, "activity_lines": [ 18.4, 18.501455, 18.784165, 19.200503 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }