{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bd2e78a6-368d-4ecf-9fbb-e7147f953908", "symbol": "RNX", "name": "Renegade Exploration Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.426, "architecture_energy": 15.202, "architecture_maturity": 89.878, "architecture_confidence": 83.991, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.29, "rotation_up": 33.03, "upward_expansion": 24.35, "deceleration": 37.76, "rotation_down": 30.74, "downward_expansion": 58.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.002567, 0.002509, 0.00259, 0.00279 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.0025, "trend_reference": 0.003167, "distance_from_trend": -0.210526, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.006401, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.609414, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.59023, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.444444, "excess_performance": -0.50815, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.210526, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12844, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.609414, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028581, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.355902, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125785, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.444444, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.776676, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5036667, "relative_activity": 0.929779, "balance": 3.776676, "dry_up": 0.511768, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.261538, "annualized_volatility": 1.719351, "from_high_reference": -0.75, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.003167, "fair_value_reference": 0.006401, "structural_low": 0.002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.30303, "directional_follow_through": 0.30303, "median_excess_return": -0.00747, "regime_survival": 0.878788, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.142857, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.1481, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 2.0, "worst_return": -0.375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.008929, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.044529, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.428571, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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0.00294 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.003, "volume": 792474, "typical_volume": 6767902.45, "trend": 0.003283, "fair_value": 0.006526, "relative_strength": -19.100954, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.725903, "energy": 20.167804, "activity_lines": [ 0.0028, 0.0026, 0.00269, 0.002919 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.002, "volume": 6666, "typical_volume": 6621675.75, "trend": 0.003217, "fair_value": 0.006462, "relative_strength": -46.998058, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.295307, "energy": 26.675657, "activity_lines": [ 0.0026, 0.0025, 0.002614, 0.002837 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0025, "volume": 5036667, "typical_volume": 5417059.35, "trend": 0.003167, "fair_value": 0.006401, "relative_strength": -35.59023, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.426242, "energy": 15.202009, "activity_lines": [ 0.002567, 0.002509, 0.00259, 0.00279 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }