{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bd2f163f-ac24-4bfc-b46e-347ae7edc7bc", "symbol": "WEST", "name": "Western Bulk Chartering AS", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 27.632, "architecture_energy": 17.238, "architecture_maturity": 24.328, "architecture_confidence": 90.192, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.02, "rotation_up": 26.95, "upward_expansion": 50.03, "deceleration": 86.49, "rotation_down": 37.91, "downward_expansion": 27.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.493334, 20.792728, 20.782143, 20.590718 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 21.200001, "trend_reference": 19.928222, "distance_from_trend": 0.063818, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.148578, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.107132, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.633537, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.293976, "excess_performance": 0.168982, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.063818, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.093775, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.107132, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098929, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.076335, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052889, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.293976, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.967768, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 46020, "relative_activity": 0.904198, "balance": 0.967768, "dry_up": 1.092233, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089078, "annualized_volatility": 0.352457, "from_high_reference": -0.078261, "from_low_reference": 0.784971 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.928222, "fair_value_reference": 19.148578, "structural_low": 15.632499, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.018587, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.010187, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.150183, "worst_return": -0.075601, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.034846, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.060166, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.215548, "worst_return": -0.177586, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.051724, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.125111, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.237113, "worst_return": -0.474545, 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.234234, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.158075, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.163934, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.109541, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.102778, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": 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"direction": 53.703539, "energy": 33.98894, "activity_lines": [ 21.533334, 21.294546, 20.948095, 20.394338 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.799999, "volume": 45730, "typical_volume": 55609.55, "trend": 19.463583, "fair_value": 19.322534, "relative_strength": 5.581569, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.777191, "energy": 17.867802, "activity_lines": [ 20.973333, 21.063636, 20.858571, 20.424096 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.200001, "volume": 42756, "typical_volume": 54190.75, "trend": 19.612704, "fair_value": 19.262739, "relative_strength": 4.470885, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.493548, "energy": 12.360695, "activity_lines": [ 20.646667, 20.910909, 20.809524, 20.471606 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.0, "volume": 87855, "typical_volume": 54908.1, "trend": 19.741074, "fair_value": 19.201361, "relative_strength": 2.423835, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.489885, "energy": 11.893775, "activity_lines": [ 20.306667, 20.74, 20.740476, 20.496593 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.200001, "volume": 46020, "typical_volume": 50895.95, "trend": 19.928222, "fair_value": 19.148578, "relative_strength": 7.633537, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.631926, "energy": 17.237814, "activity_lines": [ 20.493334, 20.792728, 20.782143, 20.590718 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }