{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bd3bc6b0-cb94-49b1-9ace-155ae67ef8fe", "symbol": "9435", "name": "Hikari Tsushin, Inc.", "exchange": "JPX", "country": "JP", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-28", "benchmark": "^N225", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 86.238, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 37.875, "architecture_energy": 53.09, "architecture_maturity": 9.105, "architecture_confidence": 68.399, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.85, "rotation_up": 69.27, "upward_expansion": 51.54, "deceleration": 20.67, "rotation_down": 14.37, "downward_expansion": 24.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 39769.333333, 38944.636364, 38042.828106, 38368.794876 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 40740.0, "trend_reference": 39217.903516, "distance_from_trend": 0.038811, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 33680.946026, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.209586, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.036785, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.074085, "excess_performance": -0.202346, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.038811, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040497, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.209586, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081376, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.160368, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.189197, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.074085, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.76463, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 335900, "relative_activity": 0.969618, "balance": 2.76463, "dry_up": 1.403478, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039708, "annualized_volatility": 0.163969, "from_high_reference": -0.109147, "from_low_reference": 0.160684 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39217.903516, "fair_value_reference": 33680.946026, "structural_low": 35100.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.007635, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.003387, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.187794, "worst_return": -0.060646, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.019527, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.056655, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.227688, "worst_return": -0.147682, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.194972, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.100625, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.205412, "worst_return": 0.039277, 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37825.333333, 37189.931179, 37364.844662, 38315.624479 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40140.0, "volume": 441500, "typical_volume": 348780.0, "trend": 39627.698828, "fair_value": 33344.101074, "relative_strength": -18.562158, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 11.200168, "energy": 23.328788, "activity_lines": [ 38737.333333, 37789.329474, 37560.462612, 38341.338802 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 38580.0, "volume": 597100, "typical_volume": 353885.0, "trend": 39406.567839, "fair_value": 33456.76729, "relative_strength": -24.495255, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.208523, "energy": 22.117433, "activity_lines": [ 38854.0, 38036.223011, 37616.505078, 38273.745329 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 39410.0, "volume": 570300, "typical_volume": 350325.0, "trend": 39270.164193, "fair_value": 33568.031037, "relative_strength": -18.937608, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 4.686243, "energy": 25.264343, "activity_lines": [ 39172.0, 38399.669247, 37762.190402, 38273.966759 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 40740.0, "volume": 335900, "typical_volume": 346425.0, "trend": 39217.903516, "fair_value": 33680.946026, "relative_strength": -16.036785, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.875195, "energy": 53.089601, "activity_lines": [ 39769.333333, 38944.636364, 38042.828106, 38368.794876 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }