{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bd4d940c-f9c9-47f8-954d-c1211c506de5", "symbol": "ZETH", "name": "Bitwise Physical Ethereum ETC", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.273, "architecture_energy": 27.969, "architecture_maturity": 82.408, "architecture_confidence": 58.949, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.3, "rotation_up": 34.09, "upward_expansion": 20.62, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 19.54, "downward_expansion": 54.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.008667, 13.508618, 13.953229, 14.395484 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 14.284, "trend_reference": 15.3197, "distance_from_trend": -0.067606, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.666699, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.340739, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.031359, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.023502, "excess_performance": -0.059381, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.067606, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16903, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.340739, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091567, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.380314, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075141, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.023502, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 9.725532, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 9.725532, "dry_up": 0.555853, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06025, "annualized_volatility": 0.430821, "from_high_reference": -0.590775, "from_low_reference": 0.211946 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.3197, "fair_value_reference": 21.666699, "structural_low": 11.786, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.013779, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": 0.046314, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.412586, "worst_return": -0.293985, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.297226, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.269448, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.503532, "worst_return": -0.311366, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.243123, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.161439, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.330615, "worst_return": -0.410999, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.352572, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.157669, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.123347, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.086433, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.253495, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": 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12.7444, 13.110691, 14.222857, 14.916772 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.5, "volume": 4181, "typical_volume": 5258.1, "trend": 16.127833, "fair_value": 21.694635, "relative_strength": -43.530863, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.901584, "energy": 59.383465, "activity_lines": [ 13.045067, 13.057891, 14.102733, 14.728815 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.312, "volume": 163, "typical_volume": 4469.1, "trend": 15.880067, "fair_value": 21.685763, "relative_strength": -39.172418, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.303805, "energy": 34.330114, "activity_lines": [ 13.5368, 13.2056, 14.061505, 14.611665 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.86, "volume": 11, "typical_volume": 4377.1, "trend": 15.614733, "fair_value": 21.675147, "relative_strength": -40.14438, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.669866, "energy": 28.326422, "activity_lines": [ 13.7712, 13.304473, 13.98219, 14.481338 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.284, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1958.7, "trend": 15.3197, "fair_value": 21.666699, "relative_strength": -38.031359, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.272508, "energy": 27.969132, "activity_lines": [ 14.008667, 13.508618, 13.953229, 14.395484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }