{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bd4ead73-4b29-40ea-8a27-22590ab302da", "symbol": "HCM", "name": "HUTCHMED (China) Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.21, "architecture_energy": 19.189, "architecture_maturity": 84.033, "architecture_confidence": 81.2, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.46, "rotation_up": 29.7, "upward_expansion": 21.49, "deceleration": 43.1, "rotation_down": 26.74, "downward_expansion": 57.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 174.2, 171.090909, 175.165476, 183.202688 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 184.0, "trend_reference": 194.725, "distance_from_trend": -0.055078, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 243.294872, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.243716, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.800088, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.140187, "excess_performance": -0.191422, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.055078, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072038, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.243716, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035349, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.188001, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008138, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.140187, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.722753, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 280737, "relative_activity": 1.96854, "balance": 0.722753, "dry_up": 1.013006, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086411, "annualized_volatility": 0.364525, "from_high_reference": -0.308271, "from_low_reference": 0.214521 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 194.725, "fair_value_reference": 243.294872, "structural_low": 151.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.028351, "positive_rate": 0.592593, "directional_follow_through": 0.407407, "median_excess_return": 0.003644, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.44821, "worst_return": -0.389049, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.035242, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.050034, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 1.315972, "worst_return": -0.367268, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.075949, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.161309, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.597605, "worst_return": -0.461985, "sufficient": true }, 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201.241667, "fair_value": 244.984295, "relative_strength": -30.979923, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.963924, "energy": 79.077708, "activity_lines": [ 161.8, 169.668182, 184.753571, 193.063978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 178.0, "volume": 35756, "typical_volume": 129997.85, "trend": 200.075, "fair_value": 244.888141, "relative_strength": -23.828047, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.884317, "energy": 57.222158, "activity_lines": [ 166.466667, 169.781818, 183.107143, 191.564516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 165.0, "volume": 125157, "typical_volume": 131835.9, "trend": 198.775, "fair_value": 244.660256, "relative_strength": -27.488615, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.923955, "energy": 48.279398, "activity_lines": [ 166.6, 167.95, 180.39881, 189.301613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 175.0, "volume": 67091, "typical_volume": 127442.95, "trend": 197.975, "fair_value": 244.5, "relative_strength": -23.009859, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.442596, "energy": 34.91027, "activity_lines": [ 169.833333, 168.481818, 178.904762, 187.767742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 166.0, "volume": 94867, "typical_volume": 128957.95, "trend": 196.958333, "fair_value": 244.091346, "relative_strength": -27.053955, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.431261, "energy": 32.074861, "activity_lines": [ 169.4, 167.740909, 176.744048, 185.704839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 170.0, "volume": 135171, "typical_volume": 130017.7, "trend": 195.825, "fair_value": 243.538462, "relative_strength": -25.289862, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.490811, "energy": 31.859046, "activity_lines": [ 169.8, 168.072727, 175.192857, 183.965591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 184.0, "volume": 280737, "typical_volume": 142611.75, "trend": 194.725, "fair_value": 243.294872, "relative_strength": -18.800088, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.209588, "energy": 19.189087, "activity_lines": [ 174.2, 171.090909, 175.165476, 183.202688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }