{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bd545e39-c7ed-4fce-8f02-423242dd768a", "symbol": "3083", "name": "Chinese Gamer International Corporation", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.984, "architecture_energy": 70.035, "architecture_maturity": 20.591, "architecture_confidence": 74.995, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.4, "rotation_up": 10.54, "upward_expansion": 13.86, "deceleration": 38.63, "rotation_down": 75.29, "downward_expansion": 89.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.79, 25.64857, 26.465319, 26.953686 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 23.75, "trend_reference": 28.186082, "distance_from_trend": -0.157386, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 39.279691, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.395362, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -45.445483, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.249697, "excess_performance": -0.691069, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.157386, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078303, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.395362, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055862, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.454455, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003167, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.249697, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.073417, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 692253, "relative_activity": 0.781066, "balance": 3.073417, "dry_up": 0.510408, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080531, "annualized_volatility": 0.194176, "from_high_reference": -0.370492, "from_low_reference": 0.004228 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.186082, "fair_value_reference": 39.279691, "structural_low": 23.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.014689, "positive_rate": 0.371429, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.021933, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.199088, "worst_return": -0.178527, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.043771, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.044198, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.18358, "worst_return": -0.133739, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.107882, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.125963, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.068437, "worst_return": -0.186747, "sufficient": true }, { 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037422, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043337, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.249158, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047198, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.036023, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"trend": 29.128257, "fair_value": 39.644795, "relative_strength": -42.539474, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.277893, "energy": 62.772573, "activity_lines": [ 26.027419, 26.915232, 27.116116, 27.734383 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.200001, "volume": 446061, "typical_volume": 902805.65, "trend": 28.825886, "fair_value": 39.525869, "relative_strength": -40.623905, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.225882, "energy": 67.407899, "activity_lines": [ 25.592435, 26.527725, 26.92458, 27.480947 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.450001, "volume": 297000, "typical_volume": 875980.5, "trend": 28.546663, "fair_value": 39.40538, "relative_strength": -40.526042, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.692192, "energy": 65.124111, "activity_lines": [ 25.387918, 26.224902, 26.770419, 27.263148 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 23.75, "volume": 692253, "typical_volume": 886292.45, "trend": 28.186082, "fair_value": 39.279691, "relative_strength": -45.445483, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.984167, "energy": 70.03544, "activity_lines": [ 24.79, 25.64857, 26.465319, 26.953686 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }