{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bd5a9cd9-97e9-4b74-92a3-de03cf9da745", "symbol": "Q-CON", "name": "Quality Construction Products Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 48.292, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.274, "architecture_energy": 31.158, "architecture_maturity": 22.535, "architecture_confidence": 85.782, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.69, "rotation_up": 23.32, "upward_expansion": 7.66, "deceleration": 52.64, "rotation_down": 42.95, "downward_expansion": 69.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.193333, 6.207273, 6.21881, 6.286842 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.1, "trend_reference": 6.346315, "distance_from_trend": -0.038812, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.747306, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.302642, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.874308, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.015103, "excess_performance": -0.207428, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.038812, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006368, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.302642, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01496, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.168743, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004308, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.015103, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.496837, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 940800, "relative_activity": 3.653167, "balance": 0.496837, "dry_up": 1.373335, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026482, "annualized_volatility": 0.184045, "from_high_reference": -0.128233, "from_low_reference": 0.079646 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.346315, "fair_value_reference": 8.747306, "structural_low": 5.65, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.481481, "directional_follow_through": 0.481481, "median_excess_return": -0.003919, "regime_survival": 0.851852, "best_return": 0.157895, "worst_return": -0.15068, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.029546, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.057593, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 1.156863, "worst_return": -0.166667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.030604, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.068876, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.115385, "worst_return": -0.210526, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.898231, "energy": 24.065966, "activity_lines": [ 6.213333, 6.203636, 6.262146, 6.320135 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.3, "volume": 318700, "typical_volume": 297775.0, "trend": 6.339456, "fair_value": 8.86728, "relative_strength": -17.085786, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.414462, "energy": 18.210325, "activity_lines": [ 6.243333, 6.221818, 6.255999, 6.31792 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.2, "volume": 119100, "typical_volume": 264495.0, "trend": 6.344399, "fair_value": 8.829519, "relative_strength": -18.066906, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.333371, "energy": 19.113637, "activity_lines": [ 6.233333, 6.221818, 6.242974, 6.308923 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.25, "volume": 36100, "typical_volume": 242825.0, "trend": 6.347857, "fair_value": 8.787832, "relative_strength": -15.902349, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.628531, "energy": 18.008492, "activity_lines": [ 6.24, 6.229091, 6.23648, 6.302833 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.1, "volume": 940800, "typical_volume": 257530.0, "trend": 6.346315, "fair_value": 8.747306, "relative_strength": -16.874308, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.274304, "energy": 31.157954, "activity_lines": [ 6.193333, 6.207273, 6.21881, 6.286842 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }