{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bd63afc6-fa9e-4408-b8e7-f591a7ff681e", "symbol": "PRVS", "name": "PARNASSUS VALUE SELECT ETF", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.324, "architecture_energy": 70.923, "architecture_maturity": 51.75, "architecture_confidence": 83.085, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.08, "rotation_up": 61.17, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 66.81, "rotation_down": 26.82, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.867653, 32.628944, 31.843447, 31.095798 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 33.53, "trend_reference": 30.284917, "distance_from_trend": 0.107152, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.890747, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.246897, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.625624, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.145835, "excess_performance": 0.02021, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.107152, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052742, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.246897, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073871, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.036256, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031137, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.145835, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.604951, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33736, "relative_activity": 1.182771, "balance": 2.604951, "dry_up": 0.95008, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02035, "annualized_volatility": 0.132486, "from_high_reference": -0.002677, "from_low_reference": 0.332188 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.284917, "fair_value_reference": 26.890747, "structural_low": 26.75, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.00416, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.00878, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.00416, "worst_return": 0.00416, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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30.950436, 30.373772 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.2, "volume": 15720, "typical_volume": 29271.75, "trend": 29.850047, "fair_value": 26.67658, "relative_strength": 3.98841, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.990808, "energy": 86.763076, "activity_lines": [ 32.468573, 32.060069, 31.14899, 30.535095 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.1772, "volume": 12326, "typical_volume": 27736.65, "trend": 29.981623, "fair_value": 26.741294, "relative_strength": 4.38938, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.887591, "energy": 75.317679, "activity_lines": [ 32.38066, 32.159295, 31.33285, 30.685234 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.955, "volume": 46614, "typical_volume": 28041.05, "trend": 30.139633, "fair_value": 26.813546, "relative_strength": 5.582773, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.571014, "energy": 67.880098, "activity_lines": [ 32.54464, 32.364358, 31.572611, 30.877065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.53, "volume": 33736, "typical_volume": 28522.85, "trend": 30.284917, "fair_value": 26.890747, "relative_strength": 3.625624, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.323895, "energy": 70.922813, "activity_lines": [ 32.867653, 32.628944, 31.843447, 31.095798 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }