{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bd653b27-57a9-4017-adb1-7281fb7365a7", "symbol": "300240", "name": "Jiangsu Feiliks International Logistics Inc.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.536, "architecture_energy": 46.824, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 65.624, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.99, "rotation_up": 27.14, "upward_expansion": 19.71, "deceleration": 66.93, "rotation_down": 44.02, "downward_expansion": 69.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.329333, 5.298895, 5.65666, 6.065018 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.55, "trend_reference": 6.623749, "distance_from_trend": -0.162106, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.872082, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.192385, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.266033, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.300126, "excess_performance": -0.307526, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.162106, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108766, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.192385, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.192936, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.26266, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04662, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.300126, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.477328, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37189640, "relative_activity": 1.224437, "balance": 0.477328, "dry_up": 1.201751, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081783, "annualized_volatility": 0.319366, "from_high_reference": -0.396739, "from_low_reference": 0.141975 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.623749, "fair_value_reference": 6.872082, "structural_low": 4.86, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.004484, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.00688, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.526391, "worst_return": -0.161335, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.012302, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.009835, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.163947, "worst_return": -0.199718, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.005616, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.064418, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.12357, "worst_return": -0.151156, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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5.323283, 5.656017, 6.182099, 6.574313 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.18, "volume": 35138250, "typical_volume": 36519849.9, "trend": 6.919416, "fair_value": 6.897728, "relative_strength": -38.296786, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.564543, "energy": 84.631183, "activity_lines": [ 5.242671, 5.509628, 6.042326, 6.456932 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.23, "volume": 36330999, "typical_volume": 36370256.1, "trend": 6.851416, "fair_value": 6.891762, "relative_strength": -30.496633, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.097516, "energy": 66.772806, "activity_lines": [ 5.220667, 5.403878, 5.920171, 6.347937 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.93, "volume": 37702794, "typical_volume": 31786178.95, "trend": 6.763749, "fair_value": 6.883107, "relative_strength": -33.784949, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.054014, "energy": 68.411787, "activity_lines": [ 5.119333, 5.274583, 5.783445, 6.223975 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.44, "volume": 34778921, "typical_volume": 30615821.25, "trend": 6.690082, "fair_value": 6.877402, "relative_strength": -24.894674, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.930503, "energy": 60.06119, "activity_lines": [ 5.218667, 5.267767, 5.709767, 6.138571 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.55, "volume": 37189640, "typical_volume": 30372836.8, "trend": 6.623749, "fair_value": 6.872082, "relative_strength": -26.266033, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.535959, "energy": 46.823595, "activity_lines": [ 5.329333, 5.298895, 5.65666, 6.065018 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }