{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bd669b96-c235-4aec-8b98-31ede963b427", "symbol": "UIM1", "name": "UBS Core EURO STOXX 50 UCITS ETF EUR dis", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.919, "architecture_energy": 73.93, "architecture_maturity": 32.535, "architecture_confidence": 92.447, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.05, "rotation_up": 63.75, "upward_expansion": 87.59, "deceleration": 52.05, "rotation_down": 22.84, "downward_expansion": 14.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 65.269333, 64.776, 63.337334, 62.153773 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 66.82, "trend_reference": 61.011889, "distance_from_trend": 0.095196, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 51.094288, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.307778, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.943247, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.111109, "excess_performance": 0.04647, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.095196, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039331, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.307778, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086147, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.049432, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00555, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.111109, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.521963, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2799, "relative_activity": 0.160359, "balance": 7.521963, "dry_up": 0.652507, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022702, "annualized_volatility": 0.175708, "from_high_reference": -0.003727, "from_low_reference": 0.266104 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 61.011889, "fair_value_reference": 51.094288, "structural_low": 54.040001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.001522, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": 0.004468, "regime_survival": 0.825, "best_return": 0.098072, "worst_return": -0.086166, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.003258, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.007978, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.125826, "worst_return": -0.060917, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.07172, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.017528, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.117137, "worst_return": -0.16627, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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17946.05, "trend": 60.573424, "fair_value": 50.770683, "relative_strength": 6.466985, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.744061, "energy": 63.773677, "activity_lines": [ 64.240668, 63.904001, 62.410096, 61.472585 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 65.099998, "volume": 34761, "typical_volume": 18815.6, "trend": 60.788165, "fair_value": 50.926482, "relative_strength": 5.274223, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.938568, "energy": 56.496984, "activity_lines": [ 64.52, 64.217273, 62.810239, 61.764622 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 66.82, "volume": 2799, "typical_volume": 17454.6, "trend": 61.011889, "fair_value": 51.094288, "relative_strength": 4.943247, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.919005, "energy": 73.929965, "activity_lines": [ 65.269333, 64.776, 63.337334, 62.153773 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }