{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bd698b0f-baaf-4f51-aa92-642528c3f071", "symbol": "AIF", "name": "Altus Group Limited", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 53.889, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.313, "architecture_energy": 60.185, "architecture_maturity": 21.585, "architecture_confidence": 62.016, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.82, "rotation_up": 70.96, "upward_expansion": 86.92, "deceleration": 43.68, "rotation_down": 13.07, "downward_expansion": 13.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.247333, 47.169611, 46.110855, 45.909015 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 52.43, "trend_reference": 45.797733, "distance_from_trend": 0.144816, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 50.350322, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.041304, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.449904, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.271462, "excess_performance": 0.151041, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.144816, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051732, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.041304, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.156254, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.084499, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.171207, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.271462, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.719258, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1050200, "relative_activity": 1.385918, "balance": 0.719258, "dry_up": 1.0109, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064394, "annualized_volatility": 0.402567, "from_high_reference": -0.163784, "from_low_reference": 0.422785 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.797733, "fair_value_reference": 50.350322, "structural_low": 36.850253, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.021367, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.006212, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.14077, "worst_return": -0.249231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.02659, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.017309, "regime_survival": 0.1, "best_return": 0.223359, "worst_return": -0.196304, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.053104, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.047685, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.292171, "worst_return": -0.196559, 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"fair_value": 50.289109, "relative_strength": -17.789799, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.933167, "energy": 12.364234, "activity_lines": [ 46.363581, 45.566204, 45.439474, 45.575846 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 44.73, "volume": 719900, "typical_volume": 805205.0, "trend": 46.246856, "fair_value": 50.307816, "relative_strength": -20.869243, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.761092, "energy": 14.952529, "activity_lines": [ 45.9801, 45.573472, 45.351561, 45.452895 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.82, "volume": 678900, "typical_volume": 789620.0, "trend": 45.93328, "fair_value": 50.329803, "relative_strength": -16.026151, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.900576, "energy": 11.619822, "activity_lines": [ 46.268666, 45.896402, 45.472306, 45.489872 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.43, "volume": 1050200, "typical_volume": 757765.0, "trend": 45.797733, "fair_value": 50.350322, "relative_strength": -8.449904, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.312969, "energy": 60.184572, "activity_lines": [ 48.247333, 47.169611, 46.110855, 45.909015 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }