{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bd6d37e2-77f0-4f76-a0ca-57360f9ffb3b", "symbol": "NAZ", "name": "Nuveen Arizona Quality Municipal Income Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 77.725, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 4.815, "architecture_energy": 16.851, "architecture_maturity": 31.82, "architecture_confidence": 72.885, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.07, "rotation_up": 16.74, "upward_expansion": 41.49, "deceleration": 78.16, "rotation_down": 37.9, "downward_expansion": 33.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.299215, 12.40284, 12.513777, 12.438705 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12.34, "trend_reference": 12.285326, "distance_from_trend": 0.00445, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.624874, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.161426, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.651566, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.056829, "excess_performance": -0.068796, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00445, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027655, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.161426, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05925, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.076516, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049126, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.056829, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.79902, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 68067, "relative_activity": 0.637698, "balance": 0.79902, "dry_up": 1.212767, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031756, "annualized_volatility": 0.140922, "from_high_reference": -0.076006, "from_low_reference": 0.119971 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.285326, "fair_value_reference": 10.624874, "structural_low": 11.584459, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.003778, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.017343, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.042925, "worst_return": -0.038394, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.051039, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.051329, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.103546, "worst_return": -0.093442, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.077527, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.092224, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.135835, "worst_return": -0.101144, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-17", "close": 12.46, "volume": 104612, "typical_volume": 110770.25, "trend": 12.219385, "fair_value": 10.560058, "relative_strength": -3.465948, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.071151, "energy": 20.215231, "activity_lines": [ 12.498319, 12.61587, 12.579421, 12.437926 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.3, "volume": 194627, "typical_volume": 111838.25, "trend": 12.244866, "fair_value": 10.581291, "relative_strength": -4.038348, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.912335, "energy": 10.870156, "activity_lines": [ 12.43271, 12.544843, 12.562908, 12.443127 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.1, "volume": 150490, "typical_volume": 109658.5, "trend": 12.263681, "fair_value": 10.602152, "relative_strength": -6.434489, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.688521, "energy": 16.816125, "activity_lines": [ 12.315662, 12.446319, 12.526359, 12.433781 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.34, "volume": 68067, "typical_volume": 106738.55, "trend": 12.285326, "fair_value": 10.624874, "relative_strength": -7.651566, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.814897, "energy": 16.851114, "activity_lines": [ 12.299215, 12.40284, 12.513777, 12.438705 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }