{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bd6f2b26-aedc-4531-a1bd-f6cd6fcd68a0", "symbol": "002639", "name": "Fujian Snowman Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.022, "architecture_energy": 62.983, "architecture_maturity": 42.163, "architecture_confidence": 91.601, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.22, "rotation_up": 20.99, "upward_expansion": 11.46, "deceleration": 52.51, "rotation_down": 62.18, "downward_expansion": 84.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.918667, 12.400182, 14.039381, 15.42415 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.52, "trend_reference": 17.379, "distance_from_trend": -0.27959, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.048333, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.245978, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.943434, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.363821, "excess_performance": -0.371221, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.27959, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054238, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.245978, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.682234, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.219434, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.254502, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.363821, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.88018, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 304102482, "relative_activity": 1.421859, "balance": 0.88018, "dry_up": 0.839729, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.133264, "annualized_volatility": 0.543687, "from_high_reference": -0.57138, "from_low_reference": 0.235933 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.379, "fair_value_reference": 10.048333, "structural_low": 10.48, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.015756, "positive_rate": 0.407407, "directional_follow_through": 0.592593, "median_excess_return": -0.011804, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.138943, "worst_return": -0.22261, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.069873, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.042477, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.176583, "worst_return": -0.178233, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.109455, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.123728, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.033123, "worst_return": -0.158257, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.082019, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.15311, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.049849, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.185693, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.405405, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"typical_volume": 224189946.35, "trend": 17.870667, "fair_value": 9.997179, "relative_strength": -27.772256, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.647049, "energy": 88.287654, "activity_lines": [ 11.896, 12.912, 14.751143, 16.134624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.92, "volume": 132637665, "typical_volume": 211610559.1, "trend": 17.581667, "fair_value": 10.020128, "relative_strength": -21.896341, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.200955, "energy": 76.334683, "activity_lines": [ 11.778667, 12.566545, 14.345762, 15.75071 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.52, "volume": 304102482, "typical_volume": 213876610.75, "trend": 17.379, "fair_value": 10.048333, "relative_strength": -21.943434, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.022085, "energy": 62.983326, "activity_lines": [ 11.918667, 12.400182, 14.039381, 15.42415 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }