{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bd73d82f-5ed6-4a03-ba02-d372ff5ba6ad", "symbol": "FUN", "name": "Six Flags Entertainment Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -30.981, "architecture_energy": 48.449, "architecture_maturity": 16.443, "architecture_confidence": 88.458, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.25, "rotation_up": 14.28, "upward_expansion": 22.62, "deceleration": 52.71, "rotation_down": 70.87, "downward_expansion": 52.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.186667, 18.791091, 19.72719, 19.383462 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 16.37, "trend_reference": 18.827667, "distance_from_trend": -0.130535, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.77927, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.500599, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.074236, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.126001, "excess_performance": -0.251626, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.130535, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092768, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.500599, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142159, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.240742, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117114, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.126001, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.2777, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19269399, "relative_activity": 1.86587, "balance": 0.2777, "dry_up": 1.162652, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.175344, "annualized_volatility": 0.6056, "from_high_reference": -0.4019, "from_low_reference": 0.308553 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.827667, "fair_value_reference": 32.77927, "structural_low": 14.94, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.013331, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.017396, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.247029, "worst_return": -0.194451, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.09216, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.00937, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.340881, "worst_return": -0.188024, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.105774, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.045173, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.35645, "worst_return": -0.326605, "sufficient": 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"trend": 18.554333, "fair_value": 33.282823, "relative_strength": -13.196606, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.45442, "energy": 23.613383, "activity_lines": [ 21.374, 21.574364, 20.676524, 19.782753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.53, "volume": 11138754, "typical_volume": 9833108.25, "trend": 18.669333, "fair_value": 33.178024, "relative_strength": -19.221167, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.839894, "energy": 14.309664, "activity_lines": [ 19.828, 20.839273, 20.481905, 19.716667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.37, "volume": 8667696, "typical_volume": 9877730.95, "trend": 18.752, "fair_value": 33.056029, "relative_strength": -18.048102, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.492052, "energy": 26.67401, "activity_lines": [ 18.622667, 20.156545, 20.269667, 19.632839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.33, "volume": 8952398, "typical_volume": 9855720.45, "trend": 18.813333, "fair_value": 32.912399, "relative_strength": -17.739989, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.907095, "energy": 31.009708, "activity_lines": [ 17.908667, 19.538364, 20.047333, 19.541097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.37, "volume": 19269399, "typical_volume": 10327301.7, "trend": 18.827667, "fair_value": 32.77927, "relative_strength": -24.074236, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.980723, "energy": 48.448922, "activity_lines": [ 17.186667, 18.791091, 19.72719, 19.383462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }