{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bd73e9fa-3136-4c14-942b-8d559fdf6b24", "symbol": "VPG", "name": "Vishay Precision Group Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 0.776, "architecture_energy": 18.247, "architecture_maturity": 69.44, "architecture_confidence": 81.447, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.12, "rotation_up": 12.29, "upward_expansion": 52.0, "deceleration": 93.99, "rotation_down": 40.94, "downward_expansion": 20.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 89.663333, 103.510909, 103.199381, 91.538237 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 68.59, "trend_reference": 76.68, "distance_from_trend": -0.105503, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.586218, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.777578, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.9314, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.225259, "excess_performance": 0.099634, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.105503, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.496234, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.777578, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.308333, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.069314, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.552458, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.225259, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.846598, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4779254, "relative_activity": 1.935323, "balance": 0.846598, "dry_up": 1.223534, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.367073, "annualized_volatility": 0.95043, "from_high_reference": -0.548096, "from_low_reference": 1.624771 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 76.68, "fair_value_reference": 38.586218, "structural_low": 39.16, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.075894, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.041091, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.347495, "worst_return": -0.092749, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.018436, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.021541, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 2.402097, "worst_return": -0.113051, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.07615, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.000731, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.058088, "worst_return": -0.101877, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.290133, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.08991, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007311, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044853, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049208, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.110721, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.121259, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.297732, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.713791, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.343259, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 35.05, "volume": 147193, "typical_volume": 256129.05, "trend": 38.809667, "fair_value": 34.075192, "relative_strength": -14.278322, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": 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129.32, 122.671818, 97.847286, 83.596151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 112.7, "volume": 2680392, "typical_volume": 2062377.75, "trend": 69.694333, "fair_value": 37.171346, "relative_strength": 94.295421, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.675329, "energy": 55.53052, "activity_lines": [ 123.701333, 122.951273, 101.053381, 86.531527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 103.89, "volume": 2396698, "typical_volume": 2136029.75, "trend": 71.865333, "fair_value": 37.596538, "relative_strength": 77.707527, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.118266, "energy": 35.877021, "activity_lines": [ 115.466667, 120.674727, 103.111619, 88.737699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 104.44, "volume": 1594109, "typical_volume": 2171479.05, "trend": 74.023667, "fair_value": 38.028846, "relative_strength": 75.546497, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.58212, "energy": 25.53361, "activity_lines": [ 109.790667, 117.831818, 104.946905, 90.83929 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 92.05, "volume": 3315941, "typical_volume": 2289669.05, "trend": 75.782667, "fair_value": 38.380833, "relative_strength": 50.129286, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.268679, "energy": 25.638456, "activity_lines": [ 102.444667, 112.606727, 105.31181, 92.00228 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 68.59, "volume": 4779254, "typical_volume": 2469486.5, "trend": 76.68, "fair_value": 38.586218, "relative_strength": 6.9314, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.77613, "energy": 18.246923, "activity_lines": [ 89.663333, 103.510909, 103.199381, 91.538237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }