{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bd84f891-cffd-480a-89a9-b1ae7fc461ef", "symbol": "5DO", "name": "Sakae Holdings Ltd.", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -44.696, "architecture_energy": 45.045, "architecture_maturity": 11.968, "architecture_confidence": 70.663, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.07, "rotation_up": 14.31, "upward_expansion": 19.4, "deceleration": 56.23, "rotation_down": 61.89, "downward_expansion": 39.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.082667, 0.085182, 0.085719, 0.085447 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.074, "trend_reference": 0.084533, "distance_from_trend": -0.124606, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.109642, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.325073, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.221096, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.108434, "excess_performance": -0.263269, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.124606, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014763, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.325073, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079784, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.292211, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127358, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.108434, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.138768, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35200, "relative_activity": 2.837565, "balance": 0.138768, "dry_up": 0.719468, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053015, "annualized_volatility": 0.538315, "from_high_reference": -0.281553, "from_low_reference": 0.072464 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.084533, "fair_value_reference": 0.109642, "structural_low": 0.069, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.089741, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.089399, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.323231, "worst_return": -0.047059, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.179482, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.124545, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.484852, "worst_return": 0.047059, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.606541, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.560474, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.620779, "worst_return": 0.047059, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.397571, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.333088, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.486051, "worst_return": 0.309091, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.213592, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019802, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.211765, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.222222, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.084211, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022989, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.171429, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047059, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022472, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.127361, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 140890.0, "trend": 0.112843, "fair_value": 0.104126, "relative_strength": 20.621657, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.288511, "energy": 36.43984, 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"fair_value": 0.110757, "relative_strength": -16.371661, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.061232, "energy": 36.148843, "activity_lines": [ 0.0878, 0.087927, 0.086548, 0.085892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.087, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 10650.0, "trend": 0.084967, "fair_value": 0.110361, "relative_strength": -16.863749, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.375465, "energy": 16.816132, "activity_lines": [ 0.0874, 0.0878, 0.086676, 0.086024 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.087, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 10645.0, "trend": 0.084967, "fair_value": 0.109984, "relative_strength": -16.699183, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.285286, "energy": 19.338657, "activity_lines": [ 0.087133, 0.087673, 0.086814, 0.086155 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.074, "volume": 35200, "typical_volume": 12405.0, "trend": 0.084533, "fair_value": 0.109642, "relative_strength": -29.221096, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.696067, "energy": 45.044537, "activity_lines": [ 0.082667, 0.085182, 0.085719, 0.085447 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }