{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bd8687f9-adcf-4387-aee3-d97d5ab86c82", "symbol": "IGCF", "name": "PIMCO Investment Grade Credit Fund (Canada) Series ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 69.996, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.049, "architecture_energy": 83.047, "architecture_maturity": 25.252, "architecture_confidence": 81.668, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.44, "rotation_up": 8.47, "upward_expansion": 20.15, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 79.09, "downward_expansion": 95.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.001942, 16.076961, 16.135338, 16.183773 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 16.0, "trend_reference": 16.254474, "distance_from_trend": -0.015656, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.528871, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.030339, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.696418, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.025688, "excess_performance": -0.146109, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.015656, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003875, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.030339, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029573, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.126964, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021603, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.025688, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1000, "relative_activity": 0.403226, "balance": 1.0, "dry_up": 0.826613, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006074, "annualized_volatility": 0.0539, "from_high_reference": -0.038315, "from_low_reference": 0.005245 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.254474, "fair_value_reference": 15.528871, "structural_low": 15.94, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.010552, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": -0.003905, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.057225, "worst_return": -0.051944, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.003252, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.018593, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.083134, "worst_return": -0.087645, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.016587, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.032132, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.05046, "worst_return": -0.126703, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004901, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004696, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.030889, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.017595, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.048026, 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16.198834, 16.21543, 16.255011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.079737, "volume": 2400, "typical_volume": 2515.0, "trend": 16.286495, "fair_value": 15.498106, "relative_strength": -10.801933, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.468083, "energy": 56.628744, "activity_lines": [ 16.153301, 16.177338, 16.19931, 16.241156 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.99, "volume": 4400, "typical_volume": 2735.0, "trend": 16.277468, "fair_value": 15.507225, "relative_strength": -11.163378, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.662705, "energy": 78.133425, "activity_lines": [ 16.085027, 16.143624, 16.177064, 16.222027 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.95, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 2435.0, "trend": 16.265466, "fair_value": 15.517745, "relative_strength": -10.575109, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.779385, "energy": 87.353988, "activity_lines": [ 16.025181, 16.103852, 16.153055, 16.2009 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.0, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 2480.0, "trend": 16.254474, "fair_value": 15.528871, "relative_strength": -12.696418, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.048903, "energy": 83.046975, "activity_lines": [ 16.001942, 16.076961, 16.135338, 16.183773 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }