{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "bd8ad65f-4fc6-4687-9d9a-4f6d089c3dab",
    "symbol": "STXH",
    "name": "Seagate Technology Holdings plc",
    "exchange": "VIE",
    "country": "AT",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^ATX",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 38.98,
    "architecture_energy": 23.762,
    "architecture_maturity": 79.0,
    "architecture_confidence": 95.034,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 38.42,
        "rotation_up": 27.4,
        "upward_expansion": 59.41,
        "deceleration": 88.33,
        "rotation_down": 27.72,
        "downward_expansion": 20.74
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        728.4,
        747.309736,
        718.654865,
        645.54568
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 702.0,
    "trend_reference": 546.338623,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.284917,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 189.987674,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 2.694977,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 50.697403,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.961309,
    "excess_performance": 0.787062,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.284917,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.462813,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.694977,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -1.399906,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.506974,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.926537,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.961309,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.473469,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 240,
      "relative_activity": 0.767018,
      "balance": 1.473469,
      "dry_up": 0.937999,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.137659,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.681525,
      "from_high_reference": -0.207675,
      "from_low_reference": 4.486481
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 546.338623,
      "fair_value_reference": 189.987674,
      "structural_low": 293.414008,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 13,
        "median_return": 0.008894,
        "positive_rate": 0.615385,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.615385,
        "median_excess_return": 0.003315,
        "regime_survival": 0.538462,
        "best_return": 0.129382,
        "worst_return": -0.109748,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.093694,
        "positive_rate": 0.571429,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.571429,
        "median_excess_return": 0.107227,
        "regime_survival": 0.285714,
        "best_return": 0.400335,
        "worst_return": -0.158496,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.086415,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.123734,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.330094,
        "worst_return": -0.150042,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.030601,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.185872,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.379436,
        "worst_return": -0.227467,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-04-12",
        "end": "2024-05-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.092102,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-05-24",
        "end": "2024-08-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.012349,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-09",
        "end": "2024-10-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.115581,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-11",
        "end": "2024-12-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.062009,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-12-20",
        "end": "2024-12-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.004983,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
        "end": "2025-01-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.100105,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-01-24",
        "end": "2025-01-31",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.08723,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-02-07",
        "end": "2025-02-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.033971,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-21",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.009964,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.006994,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.198748,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-06-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.050229,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-06-20",
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 5.865026,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-31",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.061497,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
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        "typical_volume": 842.75,
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "fair_value": 172.932955,
        "relative_strength": 93.794229,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 654.0,
        "volume": 196,
        "typical_volume": 584.55,
        "trend": 497.296382,
        "fair_value": 176.806355,
        "relative_strength": 57.852703,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 51.739555,
        "energy": 47.305033,
        "activity_lines": [
          747.836861,
          755.489246,
          682.459503,
          601.753711
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 772.0,
        "volume": 452,
        "typical_volume": 464.35,
        "trend": 514.501202,
        "fair_value": 181.415841,
        "relative_strength": 78.871258,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 51.031029,
        "energy": 38.404492,
        "activity_lines": [
          746.133333,
          759.827051,
          699.614215,
          619.476525
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 748.0,
        "volume": 286,
        "typical_volume": 392.55,
        "trend": 531.426892,
        "fair_value": 185.8505,
        "relative_strength": 69.059883,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 44.770008,
        "energy": 33.103151,
        "activity_lines": [
          742.133333,
          758.155197,
          712.309243,
          634.540964
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 702.0,
        "volume": 240,
        "typical_volume": 312.9,
        "trend": 546.338623,
        "fair_value": 189.987674,
        "relative_strength": 50.697403,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 38.97991,
        "energy": 23.762455,
        "activity_lines": [
          728.4,
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          718.654865,
          645.54568
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}