{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bd8c6062-f720-4825-bfea-6d845705691e", "symbol": "METSA", "name": "Mets\u00e4 Board Oyj", "exchange": "HEL", "country": "FI", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-18", "benchmark": "^OMXH25", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 74.544, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -5.904, "architecture_energy": 10.357, "architecture_maturity": 10.207, "architecture_confidence": 61.505, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.69, "rotation_up": 36.0, "upward_expansion": 36.52, "deceleration": 30.43, "rotation_down": 20.48, "downward_expansion": 40.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.354, 4.336545, 4.287333, 4.304667 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.29, "trend_reference": 4.368, "distance_from_trend": -0.017857, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.165695, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.304215, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.675158, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.018307, "excess_performance": -0.141882, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.017857, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04007, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.304215, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040966, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.146752, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068949, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.018307, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.63779, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11304, "relative_activity": 1.699275, "balance": 0.63779, "dry_up": 1.839415, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050386, "annualized_volatility": 0.208944, "from_high_reference": -0.25, "from_low_reference": 0.059259 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.368, "fair_value_reference": 6.165695, "structural_low": 4.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.005202, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.018065, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.086667, "worst_return": -0.075314, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.007172, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.024325, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.097975, "worst_return": -0.163732, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.034822, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.042365, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.060451, "worst_return": -0.108384, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "violet", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029748, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041162, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043386, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.08076, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.284643, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", 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18.025045, "activity_lines": [ 4.313333, 4.241273, 4.255524, 4.318086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 4.35, "volume": 9420, "typical_volume": 6662.6, "trend": 4.425667, "fair_value": 6.248407, "relative_strength": -15.472674, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.685312, "energy": 14.38041, "activity_lines": [ 4.334, 4.267091, 4.261286, 4.312237 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 4.42, "volume": 10849, "typical_volume": 6369.2, "trend": 4.41, "fair_value": 6.221075, "relative_strength": -12.467449, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.115414, "energy": 11.768429, "activity_lines": [ 4.368, 4.304727, 4.274524, 4.311871 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 4.4, "volume": 17372, "typical_volume": 6724.05, "trend": 4.391667, "fair_value": 6.193492, "relative_strength": -13.143848, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.560906, "energy": 10.916392, "activity_lines": [ 4.380667, 4.333818, 4.286048, 4.311226 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "close": 4.29, "volume": 11304, "typical_volume": 6652.25, "trend": 4.368, "fair_value": 6.165695, "relative_strength": -14.675158, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.904055, "energy": 10.357474, "activity_lines": [ 4.354, 4.336545, 4.287333, 4.304667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }