{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bd9dfde2-081b-42e3-a87c-eaa90385b738", "symbol": "NGG", "name": "National Grid PLC ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.864, "architecture_energy": 27.889, "architecture_maturity": 10.647, "architecture_confidence": 93.422, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.8, "rotation_up": 21.46, "upward_expansion": 6.07, "deceleration": 43.76, "rotation_down": 44.17, "downward_expansion": 74.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 81.45, 81.828182, 82.284413, 82.999014 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 80.88, "trend_reference": 83.647841, "distance_from_trend": -0.033089, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 64.949256, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.24528, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.416416, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.057047, "excess_performance": -0.182672, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.033089, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02932, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.24528, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105784, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.084164, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082275, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.057047, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.597419, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3671939, "relative_activity": 0.672217, "balance": 0.597419, "dry_up": 0.700743, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048195, "annualized_volatility": 0.285703, "from_high_reference": -0.122607, "from_low_reference": 0.247328 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 83.647841, "fair_value_reference": 64.949256, "structural_low": 77.406152, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.047504, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.071707, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.098673, "worst_return": -0.128798, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.078402, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.028157, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.18211, "worst_return": 0.059253, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.168532, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.076428, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.300052, "worst_return": 0.128961, "sufficient": false }, { 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"direction": -9.495313, "energy": 8.787162, "activity_lines": [ 82.273333, 82.05413, 82.882396, 83.384019 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 83.99, "volume": 3968677, "typical_volume": 5952200.45, "trend": 83.220145, "fair_value": 64.39998, "relative_strength": -1.182116, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.54046, "energy": 6.746792, "activity_lines": [ 82.954667, 82.403949, 82.894023, 83.454884 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 82.3, "volume": 3657307, "typical_volume": 5838656.55, "trend": 83.442689, "fair_value": 64.577096, "relative_strength": -2.622233, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.793702, "energy": 15.4814, "activity_lines": [ 82.929333, 82.458195, 82.779674, 83.395519 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 79.97, "volume": 4013122, "typical_volume": 5695145.15, "trend": 83.55315, "fair_value": 64.761773, "relative_strength": -6.324405, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.859558, "energy": 23.391511, "activity_lines": [ 81.936667, 82.020545, 82.468307, 83.171475 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 80.88, "volume": 3671939, "typical_volume": 5462433.25, "trend": 83.647841, "fair_value": 64.949256, "relative_strength": -8.416416, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.863923, "energy": 27.888864, "activity_lines": [ 81.45, 81.828182, 82.284413, 82.999014 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }