{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bd9e3884-19a9-4ba0-91d2-0247badf2fa7", "symbol": "XBAL", "name": "iShares Core Balanced ETF Portfolio", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 53.031, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.293, "architecture_energy": 38.796, "architecture_maturity": 48.948, "architecture_confidence": 76.599, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.74, "rotation_up": 38.44, "upward_expansion": 64.61, "deceleration": 87.58, "rotation_down": 26.93, "downward_expansion": 16.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.853334, 35.877745, 35.565326, 35.136262 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 36.330002, "trend_reference": 34.661418, "distance_from_trend": 0.04814, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.910423, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.214627, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.124244, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.070677, "excess_performance": -0.049744, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.04814, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022385, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.214627, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011942, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051242, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007944, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.070677, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.086364, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 318500, "relative_activity": 1.047577, "balance": 1.086364, "dry_up": 1.166889, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017286, "annualized_volatility": 0.105492, "from_high_reference": -0.008015, "from_low_reference": 0.14811 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.661418, "fair_value_reference": 29.910423, "structural_low": 32.448713, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.014076, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.002844, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.039479, "worst_return": -0.046061, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.019753, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.010212, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.038734, "worst_return": -0.045122, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.039457, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.037594, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.082837, "worst_return": -0.028764, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009485, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047569, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022908, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011889, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01494, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.045124, "active": 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35.186254, 34.807726 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.540001, "volume": 400000, "typical_volume": 318275.0, "trend": 34.44975, "fair_value": 29.691029, "relative_strength": -4.984747, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.328869, "energy": 47.963504, "activity_lines": [ 35.884904, 35.81612, 35.272282, 34.882101 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.529999, "volume": 346200, "typical_volume": 304630.0, "trend": 34.506957, "fair_value": 29.761147, "relative_strength": -5.052098, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.321892, "energy": 38.013205, "activity_lines": [ 35.722667, 35.797843, 35.352354, 34.951794 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.619999, "volume": 354400, "typical_volume": 306120.0, "trend": 34.583801, "fair_value": 29.833419, "relative_strength": -4.175625, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.772506, "energy": 30.759048, "activity_lines": [ 35.663333, 35.778287, 35.430969, 35.023603 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.330002, "volume": 318500, "typical_volume": 304035.0, "trend": 34.661418, "fair_value": 29.910423, "relative_strength": -5.124244, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.292502, "energy": 38.795949, "activity_lines": [ 35.853334, 35.877745, 35.565326, 35.136262 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }