{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bd9f26eb-c114-45e0-ac56-6aa951f67426", "symbol": "1826", "name": "FDB Holdings Limited", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-10-02", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.802, "architecture_energy": 87.613, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 74.432, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.3, "rotation_up": 88.27, "upward_expansion": 96.51, "deceleration": 41.86, "rotation_down": 8.0, "downward_expansion": 18.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.566667, 0.446709, 0.314698, 0.25952 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.62, "trend_reference": 0.206443, "distance_from_trend": 2.003243, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.095175, "distance_from_fair_value": 5.514314, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 292.297163, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 2.875, "excess_performance": 2.920557, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 2.003243, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.406832, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 5.514314, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 5.128612, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 2.922972, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 2.867457, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 2.875, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 32.278692, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12175000, "relative_activity": 1.471227, "balance": 32.278692, "dry_up": 3.585687, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.131886, "annualized_volatility": 1.208796, "from_high_reference": -0.081481, "from_low_reference": 12.191489 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.206443, "fair_value_reference": 0.095175, "structural_low": 0.086, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.181818, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.111111, "median_excess_return": -0.149052, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.013514, "worst_return": -0.210762, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.144928, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.30937, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.745455, "worst_return": -0.46875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.338907, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.28456, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.072727, "worst_return": -0.484305, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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0.15431, "fair_value": 0.082322, "relative_strength": 129.598009, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 95.561013, "energy": 98.317997, "activity_lines": [ 0.2478, 0.201945, 0.164023, 0.156804 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 0.475, "volume": 49895000, "typical_volume": 5206053.55, "trend": 0.164177, "fair_value": 0.084919, "relative_strength": 259.617823, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 99.328128, "energy": 99.4492, "activity_lines": [ 0.3314, 0.257309, 0.195335, 0.177494 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "close": 0.585, "volume": 42555000, "typical_volume": 7257803.55, "trend": 0.177677, "fair_value": 0.088188, "relative_strength": 312.589458, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 98.858568, "energy": 99.457128, "activity_lines": [ 0.4308, 0.325964, 0.235686, 0.204643 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "close": 0.6, "volume": 14067064, "typical_volume": 7910156.75, "trend": 0.191743, "fair_value": 0.091598, "relative_strength": 298.231183, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.827642, "energy": 97.120753, "activity_lines": [ 0.509333, 0.388982, 0.27538, 0.23189 ] }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "close": 0.62, "volume": 12175000, "typical_volume": 8275406.75, "trend": 0.206443, "fair_value": 0.095175, "relative_strength": 292.297163, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.801577, "energy": 87.613016, "activity_lines": [ 0.566667, 0.446709, 0.314698, 0.25952 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }