{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bda39056-e067-4cf0-a513-743962e79ee9", "symbol": "S1OU34", "name": "Southwest Airlines Co.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 71.297, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.217, "architecture_energy": 29.938, "architecture_maturity": 57.629, "architecture_confidence": 86.984, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.06, "rotation_up": 23.22, "upward_expansion": 61.96, "deceleration": 91.15, "rotation_down": 33.82, "downward_expansion": 16.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 232.470001, 239.520648, 228.528015, 225.677823 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 226.580002, "trend_reference": 224.812253, "distance_from_trend": 0.007863, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 169.111119, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.339829, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.859933, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.178752, "excess_performance": -0.121704, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007863, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074638, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.339829, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.173666, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.068599, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.224166, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.178752, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.54375, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.54375, "dry_up": 1.373078, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054375, "annualized_volatility": 0.478749, "from_high_reference": -0.200879, "from_low_reference": 0.389035 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 224.812253, "fair_value_reference": 169.111119, "structural_low": 186.690125, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.003882, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.084588, "worst_return": -0.068857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.112097, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.104212, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.175032, "worst_return": 0.01743, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.121427, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.047363, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.216142, "worst_return": -0.064491, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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168.272906, "relative_strength": 8.425752, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.240038, "energy": 61.015488, "activity_lines": [ 247.550002, 243.077848, 226.888885, 225.264998 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 226.580002, "volume": 6, "typical_volume": 305.75, "trend": 223.857824, "fair_value": 168.692012, "relative_strength": 3.750184, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.08006, "energy": 35.815077, "activity_lines": [ 239.298668, 241.579123, 227.75876, 225.502199 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 226.580002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 305.7, "trend": 224.812253, "fair_value": 169.111119, "relative_strength": 6.859933, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.217018, "energy": 29.938153, "activity_lines": [ 232.470001, 239.520648, 228.528015, 225.677823 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }