{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bda428fd-eb39-4339-91a0-a2bda86452ee", "symbol": "AIGL", "name": "WisdomTree Livestock", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -57.28, "architecture_energy": 68.603, "architecture_maturity": 5.385, "architecture_confidence": 81.904, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.04, "rotation_up": 16.2, "upward_expansion": 21.28, "deceleration": 43.52, "rotation_down": 74.27, "downward_expansion": 60.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.022233, 3.064245, 3.090545, 3.090856 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.9535, "trend_reference": 3.084, "distance_from_trend": -0.042315, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.698029, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.094688, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.597731, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.042781, "excess_performance": -0.213672, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.042315, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018965, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.094688, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099228, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.165977, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097271, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.042781, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.114321, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1071, "relative_activity": 0.084379, "balance": 0.114321, "dry_up": 1.565376, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020224, "annualized_volatility": 0.103257, "from_high_reference": -0.086311, "from_low_reference": 0.080878 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.084, "fair_value_reference": 2.698029, "structural_low": 2.9535, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.029433, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.034027, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.080063, "worst_return": -0.034483, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.108909, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.00251, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.11825, "worst_return": -0.06443, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.117901, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.04264, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.202743, "worst_return": 0.00311, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049063, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.022054, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.059849, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043005, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.001646, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023179, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019182, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02727, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.366, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1117.6, "trend": 2.229767, "fair_value": 2.080423, "relative_strength": -4.901086, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", 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25.321197, "activity_lines": [ 3.13, 3.124191, 3.118076, 3.099985 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.126, "volume": 1518, "typical_volume": 15688.35, "trend": 3.07445, "fair_value": 2.680654, "relative_strength": -11.166278, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.288896, "energy": 32.641474, "activity_lines": [ 3.1317, 3.123664, 3.120383, 3.103723 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.1035, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 15738.35, "trend": 3.080067, "fair_value": 2.685474, "relative_strength": -10.311154, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.098959, "energy": 22.846769, "activity_lines": [ 3.1253, 3.119955, 3.120126, 3.105597 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.035, "volume": 13113, "typical_volume": 15099.05, "trend": 3.08295, "fair_value": 2.689907, "relative_strength": -11.895545, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.830543, "energy": 10.949651, "activity_lines": [ 3.093333, 3.104464, 3.113031, 3.102689 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.032, "volume": 64292, "typical_volume": 13150.15, "trend": 3.085967, "fair_value": 2.694263, "relative_strength": -12.247819, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.483368, "energy": 40.527831, "activity_lines": [ 3.065967, 3.090782, 3.105526, 3.099402 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.9535, "volume": 1071, "typical_volume": 12692.8, "trend": 3.084, "fair_value": 2.698029, "relative_strength": -16.597731, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -57.27965, "energy": 68.603194, "activity_lines": [ 3.022233, 3.064245, 3.090545, 3.090856 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }