{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bda5b385-0bf0-45be-b4ee-8bb54d71f684", "symbol": "002277", "name": "Hunan Friendship&Apollo Commercial Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.478, "architecture_energy": 50.874, "architecture_maturity": 45.502, "architecture_confidence": 79.976, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.96, "rotation_up": 12.36, "upward_expansion": 8.38, "deceleration": 44.04, "rotation_down": 61.98, "downward_expansion": 79.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.613333, 5.77, 6.003476, 6.159656 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.72, "trend_reference": 6.491, "distance_from_trend": -0.11878, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.787224, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.194847, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.175044, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.211034, "excess_performance": -0.218434, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.11878, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047356, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.194847, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.181601, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.17175, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058219, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.211034, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.992255, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 87030379, "relative_activity": 0.777266, "balance": 1.992255, "dry_up": 0.929088, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10234, "annualized_volatility": 0.419218, "from_high_reference": -0.337963, "from_low_reference": 0.167347 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.491, "fair_value_reference": 4.787224, "structural_low": 4.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.013481, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.006552, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.145374, "worst_return": -0.110236, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.013698, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.003131, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 1.063758, "worst_return": -0.169646, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.050595, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.071585, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.871717, "worst_return": -0.213158, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"down", "direction": -65.440051, "energy": 61.866128, "activity_lines": [ 5.892, 6.118727, 6.180571, 6.363419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.25, "volume": 89279293, "typical_volume": 112188946.6, "trend": 6.584, "fair_value": 4.756351, "relative_strength": -21.881613, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.861226, "energy": 63.048586, "activity_lines": [ 5.664, 5.927091, 6.085714, 6.272323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.65, "volume": 124415506, "typical_volume": 113101256.75, "trend": 6.532333, "fair_value": 4.772327, "relative_strength": -14.329849, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.563491, "energy": 59.621647, "activity_lines": [ 5.626667, 5.831636, 6.03781, 6.212065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.72, "volume": 87030379, "typical_volume": 111969935.55, "trend": 6.491, "fair_value": 4.787224, "relative_strength": -17.175044, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.477823, "energy": 50.873537, "activity_lines": [ 5.613333, 5.77, 6.003476, 6.159656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }