{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bdaa428a-4925-4df5-a484-17eaacc45404", "symbol": "XZMD", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI USA ESG UCITS ETF 1D", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.447, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.018, "architecture_energy": 62.313, "architecture_maturity": 39.445, "architecture_confidence": 80.524, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.97, "rotation_up": 56.91, "upward_expansion": 82.88, "deceleration": 65.94, "rotation_down": 27.32, "downward_expansion": 9.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.003, 12.923545, 12.818409, 12.573189 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.486, "trend_reference": 12.324385, "distance_from_trend": 0.094253, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.226634, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.318714, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.174848, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.125756, "excess_performance": 0.07452, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.094253, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0261, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.318714, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009385, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.031748, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017007, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.125756, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.044432, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1726, "relative_activity": 0.076362, "balance": 3.044432, "dry_up": 0.404807, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018203, "annualized_volatility": 0.154441, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.240237 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.324385, "fair_value_reference": 10.226634, "structural_low": 10.873727, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.019304, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.015476, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.04251, "worst_return": -0.057665, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.0758, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.077159, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.143973, "worst_return": -0.114943, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.106044, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.057365, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.147074, "worst_return": 0.065015, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.058095, 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12.05458, "fair_value": 9.917806, "relative_strength": 3.672098, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.952407, "energy": 85.260487, "activity_lines": [ 12.926914, 12.712788, 12.265759, 12.165928 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 12.836, "volume": 10941, "typical_volume": 33743.85, "trend": 12.090262, "fair_value": 9.95229, "relative_strength": 2.279989, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.1512, "energy": 69.137696, "activity_lines": [ 12.905324, 12.785592, 12.338103, 12.216343 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 12.849, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 33109.7, "trend": 12.134764, "fair_value": 9.987808, "relative_strength": 3.348795, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.181811, "energy": 63.959033, "activity_lines": [ 12.885, 12.831634, 12.408954, 12.265293 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 12.671, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 30103.65, "trend": 12.159177, "fair_value": 10.021193, "relative_strength": 0.528853, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.916465, "energy": 52.677203, "activity_lines": [ 12.8052, 12.822263, 12.459586, 12.299889 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 12.947, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 26573.65, "trend": 12.189333, "fair_value": 10.056623, "relative_strength": 1.086249, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.494269, "energy": 54.40727, "activity_lines": [ 12.834, 12.855729, 12.533211, 12.350717 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.965, "volume": 20021, "typical_volume": 27574.7, "trend": 12.221983, "fair_value": 10.090772, "relative_strength": 2.934348, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.721853, "energy": 55.359384, "activity_lines": [ 12.877333, 12.880067, 12.603568, 12.40076 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.755, "volume": 27950, "typical_volume": 28972.2, "trend": 12.245174, "fair_value": 10.123448, "relative_strength": 0.300491, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.147103, "energy": 51.814666, "activity_lines": [ 12.844467, 12.857852, 12.64889, 12.435148 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.628, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 27839.35, "trend": 12.258947, "fair_value": 10.154895, "relative_strength": -1.894582, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.601414, "energy": 43.221647, "activity_lines": [ 12.774667, 12.813182, 12.677641, 12.459846 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.814, "volume": 6923, "typical_volume": 23433.15, "trend": 12.284238, "fair_value": 10.188221, "relative_strength": -1.63135, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.111012, "energy": 37.413343, "activity_lines": [ 12.7816, 12.806309, 12.71934, 12.495656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.486, "volume": 1726, "typical_volume": 22602.75, "trend": 12.324385, "fair_value": 10.226634, "relative_strength": 3.174848, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.01832, "energy": 62.313284, "activity_lines": [ 13.003, 12.923545, 12.818409, 12.573189 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }