{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bdaaad1f-3a00-4cb9-89b4-4eed8691f59d", "symbol": "ALHGO", "name": "Hamilton Global Opportunities PLC", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 76.474, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -36.422, "architecture_energy": 57.707, "architecture_maturity": 36.608, "architecture_confidence": 92.964, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.66, "rotation_up": 14.0, "upward_expansion": 50.5, "deceleration": 87.98, "rotation_down": 62.71, "downward_expansion": 44.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.959999, 42.574544, 43.06838, 42.66615 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 41.599998, "trend_reference": 41.918667, "distance_from_trend": -0.007602, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.518411, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.026694, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.25011, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.051567, "excess_performance": -0.001744, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007602, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02658, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.026694, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060982, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.052501, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130903, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.051567, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.005, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.005, "dry_up": 1.167939, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006287, "annualized_volatility": 0.12551, "from_high_reference": -0.054546, "from_low_reference": 0.051567 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.918667, "fair_value_reference": 40.518411, "structural_low": 39.560001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.002326, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.046732, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.00939, "worst_return": -0.040541, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.015828, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.039883, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.004673, "worst_return": -0.052427, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.013345, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.033225, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.107085, "worst_return": -0.114563, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004651, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.004608, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.004651, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009524, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 42.136002, "volume": 128, "typical_volume": 31.8, "trend": 42.982401, "fair_value": 45.532968, "relative_strength": -10.084473, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.685316, 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.811347, "energy": 34.984053, "activity_lines": [ 43.293333, 43.512727, 43.398095, 42.677213 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.0, "volume": 95, "typical_volume": 32.95, "trend": 41.794934, "fair_value": 40.527642, "relative_strength": -0.703576, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": -22.481812, "energy": 48.723942, "activity_lines": [ 42.813333, 43.210909, 43.324571, 42.695294 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.599998, "volume": 6, "typical_volume": 33.0, "trend": 41.8568, "fair_value": 40.521847, "relative_strength": -3.097294, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": -39.117162, "energy": 58.391277, "activity_lines": [ 42.319999, 42.872726, 43.201333, 42.682718 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.599998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 32.75, "trend": 41.918667, "fair_value": 40.518411, "relative_strength": -5.25011, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": -36.422202, "energy": 57.707042, "activity_lines": [ 41.959999, 42.574544, 43.06838, 42.66615 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }