{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bdac5a6d-b348-4ca5-b5cd-d9d5de164992", "symbol": "600645", "name": "Vcanbio Cell & Gene Engineering Corp., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.723, "architecture_energy": 46.637, "architecture_maturity": 88.882, "architecture_confidence": 93.214, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.05, "rotation_up": 27.78, "upward_expansion": 20.77, "deceleration": 46.95, "rotation_down": 39.22, "downward_expansion": 68.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.77, 18.482363, 19.934619, 21.869806 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 19.799999, "trend_reference": 23.957333, "distance_from_trend": -0.173531, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.258397, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.068603, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.514149, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.232558, "excess_performance": -0.189354, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.173531, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099044, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.068603, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.2463, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.195141, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068721, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.232558, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.236485, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 48785000, "relative_activity": 0.980973, "balance": 0.236485, "dry_up": 1.038437, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09087, "annualized_volatility": 0.430034, "from_high_reference": -0.399818, "from_low_reference": 0.185629 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.957333, "fair_value_reference": 21.258397, "structural_low": 16.700001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.0064, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": -0.000205, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.148258, "worst_return": -0.06482, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.024886, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.055952, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.392494, "worst_return": 0.003101, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.015337, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.10733, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.166862, "worst_return": 0.010411, "sufficient": false }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1037, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.119757, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.217664, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.162914, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.113352, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-27", 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94.551226, "activity_lines": [ 18.188, 19.805636, 23.052905, 24.306323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 18.549999, "volume": 13629446, "typical_volume": 53457591.4, "trend": 25.264333, "fair_value": 21.206987, "relative_strength": -29.442445, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.274618, "energy": 87.932163, "activity_lines": [ 18.135333, 19.269818, 22.435333, 23.851935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 18.370001, "volume": 87771333, "typical_volume": 56764240.7, "trend": 24.918, "fair_value": 21.216923, "relative_strength": -28.69508, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.439027, "energy": 83.216533, "activity_lines": [ 18.112667, 18.856545, 21.833238, 23.40714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.85, "volume": 67670560, "typical_volume": 57828021.05, "trend": 24.631667, "fair_value": 21.223013, "relative_strength": -25.823057, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.06109, "energy": 65.891873, "activity_lines": [ 18.014, 18.485091, 21.21319, 22.95114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.799999, "volume": 51347281, "typical_volume": 55537762.3, "trend": 24.361667, "fair_value": 21.229744, "relative_strength": -26.361107, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.689853, "energy": 62.821756, "activity_lines": [ 17.956666, 18.231818, 20.633952, 22.510387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.77, "volume": 38768259, "typical_volume": 52095845.5, "trend": 24.137333, "fair_value": 21.241026, "relative_strength": -22.108548, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.759534, "energy": 54.875271, "activity_lines": [ 18.259333, 18.243818, 20.209476, 22.149634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.799999, "volume": 48785000, "typical_volume": 49731240.8, "trend": 23.957333, "fair_value": 21.258397, "relative_strength": -19.514149, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.723361, "energy": 46.636686, "activity_lines": [ 18.77, 18.482363, 19.934619, 21.869806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }