{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bdace38f-9514-41c1-8695-96b4fb74286f", "symbol": "002282", "name": "Bosun Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.387, "architecture_energy": 54.429, "architecture_maturity": 84.407, "architecture_confidence": 93.319, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 27.68, "upward_expansion": 9.62, "deceleration": 60.9, "rotation_down": 51.2, "downward_expansion": 82.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.756, 5.783455, 6.027847, 6.297866 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.84, "trend_reference": 6.672227, "distance_from_trend": -0.12473, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.774935, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.137999, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.699563, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.225958, "excess_performance": -0.233358, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.12473, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067395, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.137999, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130035, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.186996, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055002, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.225958, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.459578, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19355677, "relative_activity": 0.961948, "balance": 0.459578, "dry_up": 1.039555, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052585, "annualized_volatility": 0.230731, "from_high_reference": -0.274805, "from_low_reference": 0.067642 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.672227, "fair_value_reference": 6.774935, "structural_low": 5.47, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.014986, "positive_rate": 0.565217, "directional_follow_through": 0.434783, "median_excess_return": 0.039096, "regime_survival": 0.652174, "best_return": 0.264368, "worst_return": -0.091776, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.101657, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.069765, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.3659, "worst_return": -0.311936, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.143831, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.139063, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.394822, "worst_return": -0.241989, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.677917, "energy": 77.344492, "activity_lines": [ 5.771333, 5.911054, 6.217382, 6.497258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.59, "volume": 24849875, "typical_volume": 23832299.4, "trend": 6.765403, "fair_value": 6.790242, "relative_strength": -20.774736, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.066303, "energy": 68.340323, "activity_lines": [ 5.706, 5.825636, 6.13036, 6.418021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.78, "volume": 17459799, "typical_volume": 22622257.35, "trend": 6.717, "fair_value": 6.782307, "relative_strength": -16.100068, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.847562, "energy": 62.335768, "activity_lines": [ 5.722, 5.792182, 6.071765, 6.354446 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.84, "volume": 19355677, "typical_volume": 20121334.65, "trend": 6.672227, "fair_value": 6.774935, "relative_strength": -18.699563, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.386622, "energy": 54.429357, "activity_lines": [ 5.756, 5.783455, 6.027847, 6.297866 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }