{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bdb2bda2-5142-488a-af6b-1565c332d1f3", "symbol": "S2UI34", "name": "Sun Communities, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 84.961, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.254, "architecture_energy": 29.718, "architecture_maturity": 50.098, "architecture_confidence": 83.166, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.7, "rotation_up": 23.86, "upward_expansion": 3.16, "deceleration": 56.93, "rotation_down": 41.58, "downward_expansion": 74.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.937333, 31.025544, 31.19519, 31.695763 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 30.709999, "trend_reference": 32.309346, "distance_from_trend": -0.049501, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 32.776309, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.063043, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.445873, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.039406, "excess_performance": 0.017643, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.049501, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022076, "read": "Falling" 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29.819239, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.000558, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.007023, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.176362, "worst_return": -0.094472, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.003342, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.047403, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.182595, "worst_return": -0.080519, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.026245, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.096709, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.081465, "worst_return": -0.136767, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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32.743808, "relative_strength": -10.489056, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.312702, "energy": 27.522627, "activity_lines": [ 31.409663, 31.328959, 31.793544, 32.243704 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 30.27, "volume": 396, "typical_volume": 368.95, "trend": 32.634259, "fair_value": 32.741743, "relative_strength": -16.75107, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.944808, "energy": 43.325115, "activity_lines": [ 31.028426, 31.151965, 31.582714, 32.085747 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.01, "volume": 169, "typical_volume": 348.9, "trend": 32.546843, "fair_value": 32.741888, "relative_strength": -12.037523, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.386505, "energy": 33.765574, "activity_lines": [ 30.988342, 31.132396, 31.457082, 31.980956 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.780001, "volume": 417, "typical_volume": 358.25, "trend": 32.438579, "fair_value": 32.751293, "relative_strength": -12.283301, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.734441, "energy": 32.285269, "activity_lines": [ 30.926681, 31.063269, 31.327654, 31.866966 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.469999, "volume": 411, "typical_volume": 373.05, "trend": 32.395079, "fair_value": 32.765785, "relative_strength": -11.655372, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.753974, "energy": 32.271274, "activity_lines": [ 31.078, 31.111522, 31.287783, 31.804477 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.709999, "volume": 165, "typical_volume": 371.25, "trend": 32.309346, "fair_value": 32.776309, "relative_strength": -10.445873, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.254383, "energy": 29.71766, "activity_lines": [ 30.937333, 31.025544, 31.19519, 31.695763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }