{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bdb84393-7169-453b-a689-25b42a08e9c7", "symbol": "GDV", "name": "Gabelli Dividend & Income Trust", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 87.201, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.718, "architecture_energy": 75.846, "architecture_maturity": 35.503, "architecture_confidence": 75.016, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.23, "rotation_up": 76.95, "upward_expansion": 93.77, "deceleration": 40.64, "rotation_down": 13.46, "downward_expansion": 15.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.931367, 29.606303, 29.242627, 28.848292 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 30.39, "trend_reference": 28.434095, "distance_from_trend": 0.068787, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.845623, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.330233, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.085453, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.075552, "excess_performance": -0.050073, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.068787, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034864, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.330233, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013218, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.010855, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00812, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.075552, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.393978, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 448108, "relative_activity": 0.848345, "balance": 2.393978, "dry_up": 0.863923, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024023, "annualized_volatility": 0.139619, "from_high_reference": -0.003607, "from_low_reference": 0.226419 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.434095, "fair_value_reference": 22.845623, "structural_low": 25.739753, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.007758, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": 0.001847, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.056074, "worst_return": -0.098746, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.010983, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.013702, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.097987, "worst_return": -0.128776, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.082184, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.023361, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.137802, "worst_return": 0.003374, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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28.683007, 28.415385 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.63, "volume": 479305, "typical_volume": 542311.85, "trend": 28.154072, "fair_value": 22.61378, "relative_strength": 0.34324, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.399289, "energy": 67.432911, "activity_lines": [ 29.373963, 29.133274, 28.813769, 28.516801 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.73, "volume": 497227, "typical_volume": 538606.8, "trend": 28.246638, "fair_value": 22.688036, "relative_strength": 1.263686, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.320287, "energy": 72.53536, "activity_lines": [ 29.548581, 29.268408, 28.947597, 28.618474 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.76, "volume": 400705, "typical_volume": 529240.9, "trend": 28.341174, "fair_value": 22.764891, "relative_strength": 0.256254, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.045124, "energy": 70.354695, "activity_lines": [ 29.672804, 29.387611, 29.072358, 28.71611 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.39, "volume": 448108, "typical_volume": 528214.3, "trend": 28.434095, "fair_value": 22.845623, "relative_strength": -1.085453, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.718181, "energy": 75.846348, "activity_lines": [ 29.931367, 29.606303, 29.242627, 28.848292 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }