{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bdbfb701-fb87-4e54-96e8-4680b0f7c15d", "symbol": "688216", "name": "China Chippacking Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 63.459, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -15.735, "architecture_energy": 27.146, "architecture_maturity": 50.542, "architecture_confidence": 55.309, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.83, "rotation_up": 16.98, "upward_expansion": 17.54, "deceleration": 69.59, "rotation_down": 60.49, "downward_expansion": 40.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.416667, 32.617637, 33.317524, 32.635892 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 31.23, "trend_reference": 31.581, "distance_from_trend": -0.011114, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.398846, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.334681, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 10.56627, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.086575, "excess_performance": -0.043371, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.011114, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.136634, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.334681, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119769, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.105663, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095199, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.086575, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.673885, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26872045, "relative_activity": 1.143309, "balance": 0.673885, "dry_up": 1.737532, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.212247, "annualized_volatility": 0.680075, "from_high_reference": -0.346379, "from_low_reference": 0.559161 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.581, "fair_value_reference": 23.398846, "structural_low": 23.77, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.00229, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.018559, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.269841, "worst_return": -0.199133, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.065342, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.056896, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.497615, "worst_return": -0.364293, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.103005, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.152716, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.196954, "worst_return": -0.402963, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011785, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.009009, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.081103, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041096, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.15754, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.178153, 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.350293, "energy": 29.096086, "activity_lines": [ 36.522667, 36.492364, 34.546476, 33.19 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.48, "volume": 42247923, "typical_volume": 21700985.4, "trend": 31.18, "fair_value": 23.379808, "relative_strength": 4.376372, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.7261, "energy": 11.386171, "activity_lines": [ 33.396667, 35.082364, 34.139952, 33.030258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.120001, "volume": 32410270, "typical_volume": 22681673.65, "trend": 31.282667, "fair_value": 23.366154, "relative_strength": -8.312379, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.575295, "energy": 30.65644, "activity_lines": [ 29.865334, 33.195637, 33.426524, 32.63929 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.23, "volume": 26872045, "typical_volume": 23503737.05, "trend": 31.581, "fair_value": 23.398846, "relative_strength": 10.56627, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.734714, "energy": 27.146225, "activity_lines": [ 29.416667, 32.617637, 33.317524, 32.635892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }