{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bdc7deb5-f77f-4862-8d25-6ce20c5611d8", "symbol": "SDF", "name": "Steadfast Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 57.712, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.544, "architecture_energy": 62.688, "architecture_maturity": 30.374, "architecture_confidence": 80.527, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.54, "rotation_up": 65.36, "upward_expansion": 86.82, "deceleration": 63.37, "rotation_down": 20.43, "downward_expansion": 11.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.2, 5.152364, 4.834095, 4.683111 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 5.25, "trend_reference": 4.599318, "distance_from_trend": 0.141474, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.301464, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.009708, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.198158, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.09625, "excess_performance": 0.032544, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.141474, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00673, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.009708, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.23294, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.001982, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.223008, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.09625, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.250048, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28381706, "relative_activity": 2.42743, "balance": 1.250048, "dry_up": 1.444207, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048132, "annualized_volatility": 0.446772, "from_high_reference": -0.197345, "from_low_reference": 0.356589 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.599318, "fair_value_reference": 5.301464, "structural_low": 3.87, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.00627, "positive_rate": 0.413793, "directional_follow_through": 0.413793, "median_excess_return": 0.000787, "regime_survival": 0.758621, "best_return": 0.101161, "worst_return": -0.116535, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.003432, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.017062, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.148672, "worst_return": -0.13031, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.072706, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.055322, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.247736, "worst_return": -0.073637, "sufficient": 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4.569659 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.2, "volume": 11764857, "typical_volume": 11146291.7, "trend": 4.602369, "fair_value": 5.303631, "relative_strength": 3.738766, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.135148, "energy": 84.015209, "activity_lines": [ 5.187333, 5.041455, 4.709476, 4.60834 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.11, "volume": 13393395, "typical_volume": 11205116.9, "trend": 4.598673, "fair_value": 5.302128, "relative_strength": -0.076556, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.538186, "energy": 64.023048, "activity_lines": [ 5.171333, 5.093091, 4.767238, 4.64109 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.25, "volume": 28381706, "typical_volume": 11692078.6, "trend": 4.599318, "fair_value": 5.301464, "relative_strength": -0.198158, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.54448, "energy": 62.6879, "activity_lines": [ 5.2, 5.152364, 4.834095, 4.683111 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }