{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bdcc4a2f-e7d6-42d1-b5de-123f069f62c7", "symbol": "CDG", "name": "Casta Diva Group S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.065, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.446, "architecture_energy": 22.148, "architecture_maturity": 29.093, "architecture_confidence": 72.052, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.73, "rotation_up": 43.61, "upward_expansion": 66.74, "deceleration": 55.52, "rotation_down": 18.22, "downward_expansion": 7.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.018667, 2.992, 3.008619, 2.949591 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.05, "trend_reference": 2.853333, "distance_from_trend": 0.068925, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.64665, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.852246, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 13.666108, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.255144, "excess_performance": 0.084252, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.068925, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.146838, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.852246, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.164421, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.136661, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.276218, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.255144, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.719368, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 64000, "relative_activity": 0.295954, "balance": 0.719368, "dry_up": 0.506936, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071122, "annualized_volatility": 0.418577, "from_high_reference": -0.094955, "from_low_reference": 1.469636 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.853333, "fair_value_reference": 1.64665, "structural_low": 1.945, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.026845, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": 0.000354, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.339056, "worst_return": -0.045084, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.095791, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.005977, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.283262, "worst_return": -0.219763, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.009261, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.053817, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.140584, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.117389, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.016667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.08, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.059701, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051383, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.090551, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"volume": 297000, "typical_volume": 282875.0, "trend": 2.720333, "fair_value": 1.601711, "relative_strength": 24.929938, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.66748, "energy": 16.599212, "activity_lines": [ 2.968667, 2.976, 2.982333, 2.888172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.08, "volume": 244500, "typical_volume": 286850.0, "trend": 2.757333, "fair_value": 1.613025, "relative_strength": 22.54973, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.420484, "energy": 23.799638, "activity_lines": [ 3.014667, 2.991636, 3.000286, 2.911376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.96, "volume": 116000, "typical_volume": 262000.0, "trend": 2.793333, "fair_value": 1.62363, "relative_strength": 16.770769, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.818331, "energy": 25.772822, "activity_lines": [ 3.014667, 2.984364, 3.003619, 2.924452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.96, "volume": 14000, "typical_volume": 248600.0, "trend": 2.827, "fair_value": 1.634746, "relative_strength": 14.736873, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.795128, "energy": 24.505524, "activity_lines": [ 3.008, 2.977818, 3.003333, 2.935204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.05, "volume": 64000, "typical_volume": 216250.0, "trend": 2.853333, "fair_value": 1.64665, "relative_strength": 13.666108, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.445945, "energy": 22.147884, "activity_lines": [ 3.018667, 2.992, 3.008619, 2.949591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }