{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bdd89647-a908-43ab-9610-77927f25f63b", "symbol": "GWH", "name": "ESS Tech Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.986, "architecture_energy": 50.258, "architecture_maturity": 76.33, "architecture_confidence": 89.578, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.89, "rotation_up": 20.88, "upward_expansion": 6.94, "deceleration": 47.71, "rotation_down": 55.09, "downward_expansion": 77.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.738487, 0.783764, 0.85545, 0.956923 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.6435, "trend_reference": 1.13305, "distance_from_trend": -0.432064, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.193686, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.910547, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -67.035533, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.595283, "excess_performance": -0.720908, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.432064, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.324057, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.910547, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002498, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.670355, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035946, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.595283, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.34637, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3134412, "relative_activity": 0.918623, "balance": 1.34637, "dry_up": 1.020756, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.303526, "annualized_volatility": 0.731631, "from_high_reference": -0.953605, "from_low_reference": 0.138334 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.13305, "fair_value_reference": 7.193686, "structural_low": 0.5653, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.087471, "positive_rate": 0.277778, "directional_follow_through": 0.722222, "median_excess_return": -0.127378, "regime_survival": 0.861111, "best_return": 1.950355, "worst_return": -0.47619, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.117996, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.182686, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.48227, "worst_return": -0.673846, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.380413, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.540531, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.971698, "worst_return": -0.791749, "sufficient": true 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.802009, "energy": 34.496267, "activity_lines": [ 0.860207, 0.867536, 0.934074, 1.054057 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.7509, "volume": 5109239, "typical_volume": 3320104.65, "trend": 1.217367, "fair_value": 7.483811, "relative_strength": -60.875909, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.373005, "energy": 36.782517, "activity_lines": [ 0.827893, 0.843155, 0.908826, 1.021577 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.747, "volume": 1916909, "typical_volume": 3337429.7, "trend": 1.175267, "fair_value": 7.32033, "relative_strength": -60.986718, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.604776, "energy": 37.624352, "activity_lines": [ 0.797007, 0.820955, 0.885821, 0.991231 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.6435, "volume": 3134412, "typical_volume": 3412075.8, "trend": 1.13305, "fair_value": 7.193686, "relative_strength": -67.035533, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.986091, "energy": 50.257605, "activity_lines": [ 0.738487, 0.783764, 0.85545, 0.956923 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }