{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bdd93258-b210-4587-98a6-175244a576da", "symbol": "ALECO", "name": "\u00e9comiam SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 77.599, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 0.541, "architecture_energy": 7.882, "architecture_maturity": 16.428, "architecture_confidence": 61.118, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 67.11, "rotation_up": 24.19, "upward_expansion": 15.97, "deceleration": 64.39, "rotation_down": 40.58, "downward_expansion": 38.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.069333, 2.076, 2.120214, 2.105774 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.19, "trend_reference": 2.101, "distance_from_trend": 0.042361, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.631346, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.167726, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.517141, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.004587, "excess_performance": -0.048724, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.042361, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045447, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.167726, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056671, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.015171, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002928, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.004587, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.153401, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13201, "relative_activity": 2.56084, "balance": 1.153401, "dry_up": 1.726253, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077626, "annualized_volatility": 0.340383, "from_high_reference": -0.141176, "from_low_reference": 0.440789 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.101, "fair_value_reference": 2.631346, "structural_low": 1.75, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.007472, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.021062, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.157623, "worst_return": -0.066937, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.018088, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.027697, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.041379, "worst_return": -0.255533, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.349362, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.343197, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.141379, "worst_return": -0.557344, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.474849, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.539783, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.474849, "worst_return": -0.474849, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.122378, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.059701, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.080537, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046263, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.106796, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.124088, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.095041, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056075, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.11165, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02584, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056604, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.081818, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.068293, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.6, "volume": 7760, "typical_volume": 9229.15, "trend": 5.772333, "fair_value": 10.744467, "relative_strength": -18.717484, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.767943, "energy": 56.57584, "activity_lines": [ 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"trend": 2.094, "fair_value": 2.683269, "relative_strength": -12.626468, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.71739, "energy": 36.072315, "activity_lines": [ 1.994, 2.100364, 2.117833, 2.105925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.05, "volume": 6161, "typical_volume": 4337.9, "trend": 2.102333, "fair_value": 2.664679, "relative_strength": -5.31971, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.150715, "energy": 34.450643, "activity_lines": [ 1.989333, 2.08, 2.113929, 2.103086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.06, "volume": 9159, "typical_volume": 4583.15, "trend": 2.106, "fair_value": 2.645897, "relative_strength": -5.637402, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.573077, "energy": 35.95906, "activity_lines": [ 2.001333, 2.064182, 2.111262, 2.100355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.19, "volume": 13201, "typical_volume": 5154.95, "trend": 2.101, "fair_value": 2.631346, "relative_strength": -1.517141, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.540715, "energy": 7.882355, "activity_lines": [ 2.069333, 2.076, 2.120214, 2.105774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }