{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "bdd9a140-10fb-453a-8302-9a2f0fcc153d",
    "symbol": "STRL",
    "name": "Sterling Construction Company Inc",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "QQQ",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 55.515,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": -8.535,
    "architecture_energy": 23.49,
    "architecture_maturity": 52.376,
    "architecture_confidence": 80.343,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 54.3,
        "rotation_up": 14.22,
        "upward_expansion": 42.48,
        "deceleration": 86.22,
        "rotation_down": 46.92,
        "downward_expansion": 36.48
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        604.306333,
        665.482,
        699.921238,
        650.016688
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 547.06,
    "trend_reference": 575.2025,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.048926,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 244.587692,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 1.236662,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 4.344422,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.363254,
    "excess_performance": 0.1758,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.048926,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.298403,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.236662,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -2.275506,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.043444,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -1.042778,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.363254,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.423777,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 5561132,
      "relative_activity": 1.592413,
      "balance": 0.423777,
      "dry_up": 1.28791,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.23948,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.822763,
      "from_high_reference": -0.45603,
      "from_low_reference": 1.076523
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 575.2025,
      "fair_value_reference": 244.587692,
      "structural_low": 362.59,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 17,
        "median_return": 0.078834,
        "positive_rate": 0.647059,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.647059,
        "median_excess_return": 0.052462,
        "regime_survival": 0.529412,
        "best_return": 0.355689,
        "worst_return": -0.197679,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.16606,
        "positive_rate": 0.875,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.875,
        "median_excess_return": 0.203185,
        "regime_survival": 0.125,
        "best_return": 0.915001,
        "worst_return": -0.408709,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.413056,
        "positive_rate": 0.833333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.833333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.264019,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 1.500189,
        "worst_return": -0.127692,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.433091,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.580696,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 2.104792,
        "worst_return": 0.259231,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-04-26",
        "end": "2024-05-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.217018,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-05-17",
        "end": "2024-06-21",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.098091,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-06-28",
        "end": "2024-09-20",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.251986,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-09-27",
        "end": "2024-12-27",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.204244,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
        "end": "2025-02-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.254127,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-02-21",
        "end": "2025-03-21",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.088916,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-03-28",
        "end": "2025-05-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.530263,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-05-16",
        "end": "2025-06-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.15591,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-06-27",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.361064,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-28",
        "end": "2026-02-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.16549,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-02-13",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.0826,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-04-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.062155,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-04-17",
        "end": "2026-07-10",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.471563,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-17",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.143291,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "typical_volume": 3139358.4,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 596.77,
        "volume": 6139123,
        "typical_volume": 3330021.5,
        "trend": 567.238167,
        "fair_value": 241.598782,
        "relative_strength": 20.35046,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 1.763416,
        "energy": 15.852866,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 547.06,
        "volume": 5561132,
        "typical_volume": 3492267.85,
        "trend": 575.2025,
        "fair_value": 244.587692,
        "relative_strength": 4.344422,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -8.535135,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}