{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "bde10d57-d0d6-4553-b178-490cd882f86b",
    "symbol": "PXJ",
    "name": "INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR OIL&GAS SERVICES ETF (R/S)",
    "exchange": "NYSEARCA",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 79.193,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Re-acceleration watch",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 36.518,
    "architecture_energy": 25.812,
    "architecture_maturity": 35.586,
    "architecture_confidence": 56.323,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.",
        "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 45.78,
        "rotation_up": 55.6,
        "upward_expansion": 66.74,
        "deceleration": 63.44,
        "rotation_down": 11.93,
        "downward_expansion": 10.07
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        42.117233,
        41.382976,
        41.872192,
        41.662923
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 42.3137,
    "trend_reference": 40.730453,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.038871,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 29.858298,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.41715,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 7.086829,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.132256,
    "excess_performance": 0.006631,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.038871,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.103156,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.41715,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.117249,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.070868,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.186927,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.132256,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.296403,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 151451,
      "relative_activity": 0.747916,
      "balance": 0.296403,
      "dry_up": 0.512587,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.054364,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.281102,
      "from_high_reference": -0.094601,
      "from_low_reference": 0.75368
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 40.730453,
      "fair_value_reference": 29.858298,
      "structural_low": 37.241786,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 13,
        "median_return": -0.012534,
        "positive_rate": 0.461538,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.461538,
        "median_excess_return": -0.030055,
        "regime_survival": 0.538462,
        "best_return": 0.103774,
        "worst_return": -0.218638,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.022351,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.093622,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.015385,
        "worst_return": -0.074659,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.060512,
        "positive_rate": 0.4,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.4,
        "median_excess_return": -0.13798,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.247561,
        "worst_return": -0.130649,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.034489,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
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        "best_return": 0.185291,
        "worst_return": -0.069987,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "end": "2023-11-10",
        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "return": 0.102683,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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      },
      {
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      {
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      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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        "end": "2025-01-10",
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        "active": false
      },
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        "regime": "balance",
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      {
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        "energy": 62.160012,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 217601.55,
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "relative_strength": 21.03853,
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 38.5367,
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        "typical_volume": 266968.75,
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        "relative_strength": 4.418977,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 40.78,
        "volume": 358660,
        "typical_volume": 280282.45,
        "trend": 39.111002,
        "fair_value": 29.467268,
        "relative_strength": 8.464249,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 22.661348,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 40.76,
        "volume": 90745,
        "typical_volume": 277522.75,
        "trend": 39.507566,
        "fair_value": 29.564402,
        "relative_strength": 9.425527,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 2.087365,
        "energy": 19.77091,
        "activity_lines": [
          40.081663,
          40.802528,
          41.697002,
          41.174135
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 42.59,
        "volume": 80062,
        "typical_volume": 271813.3,
        "trend": 39.962312,
        "fair_value": 29.66575,
        "relative_strength": 14.237081,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 17.477618,
        "energy": 12.532661,
        "activity_lines": [
          40.969767,
          40.973417,
          41.782371,
          41.373001
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 42.53,
        "volume": 92932,
        "typical_volume": 266500.35,
        "trend": 40.387601,
        "fair_value": 29.763398,
        "relative_strength": 12.078602,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 35.265691,
        "energy": 21.762457,
        "activity_lines": [
          41.692447,
          41.174966,
          41.847544,
          41.538659
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 42.3137,
        "volume": 151451,
        "typical_volume": 202497.35,
        "trend": 40.730453,
        "fair_value": 29.858298,
        "relative_strength": 7.086829,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 36.518242,
        "energy": 25.811501,
        "activity_lines": [
          42.117233,
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          41.872192,
          41.662923
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}